River Flood Warning 107, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
314 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND WATCHES IN EFFECT...

.SHORT TERM/TONIGHT...
FOCUS TONIGHT REMAINS ON SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NORTH TO NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER. GREATEST
INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. LACK OF 0-3 KM CAPE IN SOUTHERN IOWA NEAR
THE WARM FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION IS STILL SEVERAL
HOURS OFF IN IA. ONCE CONVECTION DOES BEGIN ALL MODES OF SVR WX ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATER TONIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL FOCUS INTO THE STATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH OVER IA. AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT THE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL. WILL EXPAND FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO
HIGHWAY 20 WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD WILL
CAUSE HYDROLOGIC ISSUES GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY-WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMEROUS VIGOROUS WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE PERIOD
WHILE THE MIDWEST REMAINS CONNECTED TO THE MIDWEST. ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION LIKELY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCED OF
A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE STATE. MARGINAL SEVERE WX AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER THE BIG
SHOW STILL ON TARGET FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE EVENT LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY EVENING THEN TURNING
INTO A COMBINATION SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TONIGHTS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE A PRIMER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL GREATLY INCREASE IF CENTRAL IOWA GETS ONE
INCH PLUS TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A NORTH TO SOUTH 2 TO 4
INCH BAND THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL MODES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE LIKELY
WITH THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL ENHANCED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. PWATS
APPROACHING 2 INCHES WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE
REGION WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
STORM MOVEMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS TRAINING POTENTIAL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER FRIDAY MORNING THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OVER
THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BACK BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. POSSIBLE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL HANG
UP OVER IOWA LEADING TO A PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING TO THE NORTH BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION 05/06Z...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AFFECTING KDSM AND
KMCW...AND VERY NEAR KALO AT THIS TIME. KOTM REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF
THE ACTION BUT WILL PROBABLY GET HIT AT SOME TIME DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED TO END UNTIL CLOSE TO
12Z...AFTER WHICH MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME BR/HZ WILL LINGER INTO
THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ENTER THE PICTURE THURS EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH TIL 10Z THURSDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 3. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TIL 12Z THURSDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1036 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-051115-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-
MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1036 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING AND MORE
RIVER FLOODING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING AND MORE
RIVER FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-051115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-
1036 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING AND MORE
RIVER FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING AND MORE
RIVER FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
217 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 ENE ELLSTON           40.86N 94.06W
06/05/2008  E75 MPH          RINGGOLD           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAMAGE UNKNOWN.

&&

BSMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
219 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 AM     HAIL             8 WSW BEDFORD           40.62N 94.86W
06/05/2008  E0.88 INCH       TAYLOR             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TAYLOR COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
222 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE GRINNELL AIRPORT  41.75N 92.72W
06/05/2008  E65 MPH          POWESHIEK          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 65 MPH WIND GUST FROM GRINNELL COLLEGE
            SECURITY.

&&

BSMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
224 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S MELBOURNE           41.87N 93.10W
06/05/2008                   MARSHALL           IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POSSIBLE TORNADO...OUTBUILDING DESTROYED.

&&

BSMALL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
231 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W BAXTER              41.83N 93.24W
06/05/2008                   JASPER             IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE.

&&

PODRAZIK