Frost Advisory 2, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS73 KDMX 140206
NPWDMX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
906 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2008

IAZ004-015-023-033-141015-
/O.CON.KDMX.FR.Y.0002.081014T0900Z-081014T1400Z/
EMMET-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTHERVILLE...EMMETSBURG...POCAHONTAS...
SAC CITY
906 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2008

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT
TUESDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY.

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S. FROST IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE
THE WIND GOES CALM.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST LIKELY. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

$$

000 
WWUS73 KDMX 140854
NPWDMX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

IAZ004-015-023-033-141400-
/O.CON.KDMX.FR.Y.0002.081014T0900Z-081014T1400Z/
EMMET-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTHERVILLE...EMMETSBURG...POCAHONTAS...
SAC CITY
354 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING. 

LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED CLOUDINESS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE 30S MID MORNING. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AFTER SUNRISE.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST LIKELY. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

$$

CC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CHUGGING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD BE THROUGH ALO BY 4 PM AND OTM BY 630 PM. AS SEEN
UPSTREAM...TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE AN IMMEDIATE TUMBLE OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS OR PERIODS
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS OR SO
AFTER THE FRONT PASSAGE. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE ON
THE WANE THIS EVENING...SO OVERALL CERTAINTY AND COVERAGE OF RAIN
WILL BE DIMINISHING THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU ARE.

THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE. UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS CLEAR AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT BEST FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL IOWA...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST FROM
SAC COUNTY TO EMMET COUNTY...CANNOT RULE OUT AREAS OF FROST.
LIMITING FACTORS ARE WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH AND GROUND MAY BE
TOO WARM/WET TO PREVENT A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT. HOWEVER...WILL
BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND THROW 4 COUNTIES INTO A FROST
ADVISORY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN A TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS UNFOLDING ABOUT AS EXPECTED.  YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE
HINTING AT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM COMING OUT IN TWO PIECES AND THE
RUNS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WERE CONSISTENT IN THAT SOLUTION.
POST FRONTAL RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING FOR TUESDAY.  THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALSO IN AGREEMENT ARE THE GFS AND THE EURO FOR THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
WEEK.  NOW BOTH MODELS SWING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.  SURROUNDING OFFICES ARE NOW ON BOARD
WITH PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALSO FRIDAY MORNING.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND BUT A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER
THE MIDWEST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE S.W. U.S. BY MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT SHOULD SET UP TO OUR SOUTH WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH.  LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO TEMPS
EXCEPT FOR MINOR TWEAKS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...13/18Z
COLD FRONT NOW CLOSE TO KMCW AND PAST KFOD. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS NW TO SE...AND BE EAST OF KOTM BY 00Z...ACCOMPANIED BY A
WIDE SWATH OF SHRA WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THIS SWATH MOVES THROUGH. MOST
TERMINALS WILL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND FROPA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO A CLEAR SKY BY 03Z AT KFOD TO 11Z AT KOTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR EMMET-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOYER
LONG TERM...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
430 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-141100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
430 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

COGIL