Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Des Moines, IA

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Butler County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hancock County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Humboldt County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Kossuth County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Sac County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Webster County, IA, Winnebago County, IA, Worth County, IA, Wright County, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
323 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL OVER CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY AS THE AREA IS IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ANY TIME SOON WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER TO THIS POINT WITH
THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NW OF THE DMX FORECAST AREA AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM JUST NOW MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
SCENARIO WILL CHANGE TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHEAST AND THE
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A COUPLE OF AREAS POSSIBLE FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE FIRST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE OTHER AREA ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND MOVE
INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET POINTING RIGHT AT THE SFC BOUNDARY. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO
A COUPLED JET ALOFT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS OF 1.25 TO 1.50...WHICH ARE NEARLY 250% OF NORMAL.
CURRENTLY FAVOR THE FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF/UKMET/NAM SOLUTIONS AND
DISCOUNTED THE FARTHER NORTH GFS DUE TO POSITION OF DYNAMICS. DUE TO
SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENTLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL THE NEXT
18 HOURS...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 05Z TO 17Z.
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TO 3
INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH. FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END. NEXT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WILL FIRE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME HINTS AT A DEFORMATION ZONE DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHWEST IOWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE SNOW MIX MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -6C AND SFC TEMPERATURES DROPPING.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TREND WITH THE FOCUS MORE ON SOUTHERN IOWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD SUNDAY WITH THE COLD CORE
ALOFT. INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GUIDANCE LIKELY OVER DOING
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HAVE UNDERCUT CLOSER TO CONVECTIVE
TEMPS WHICH WILL END UP PRODUCING BROKEN SKIES. COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE MONDAY THEN GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF AT KOTM/KALO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...SO HAVE
LEFT OUT OF CURRENT TAFS. EXPECT SCT/BKN MVFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING
AS BEST LIFT REMAINS SITUATED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT WEST OF
THE CWA. AS UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SFC
LOW TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE STATE. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BY
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SFC LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS
WITH STRATUS DECK EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME
KEPT ALL VSBYS VFR...BUT AS TSRA/RAIN SHIELD DEVELOPS ACROSS AREA
EXPECT MVFR VSBYS WITH MODERATE RAIN AND ISOLATED IFR VSBYS WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TIL NOON FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ALBRECHT
LONG TERM...DONAVON

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