Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 260231
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
927 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

IAC015-049-153-260800-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0103.000000T0000Z-080626T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOONE IA-POLK IA-DALLAS IA-
927 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN DALLAS...NORTHWESTERN POLK AND SOUTHERN BOONE
COUNTIES...

AT 923 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.  THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY 
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
WOODWARD...POLK CITY...MADRID AND ANKENY.  THE PUBLIC HAS REPORTED 
UP TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN AT JESTER PARK...WHILE 2.12 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAS FALLEN AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE NORTH OF JOHNSTON.

BEAVER CREEK AND ADJACENT SMALLER TRIBUTARIES MAY SEE RAPID RISES 
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 4164 9390 4200 9416 4200 9375 4193 9370
      4186 9370 4186 9365 4164 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 180DEG 0KT 4169 9378

$$

SMALL

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 260339
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1039 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

IAC015-049-153-260800-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0103.000000T0000Z-080626T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOONE IA-POLK IA-DALLAS IA-
1039 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN DALLAS...NORTHWESTERN POLK AND SOUTHERN BOONE
COUNTIES...

AT 1031 PM CDT...ADDITIONAL RAINS HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGH THE WARNED 
AREA...BUT RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS RAINS LIKELY CONTINUES.  VARIOUS 
RAIN GAGES HAVE RECORDED ANYWHERE FROM TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN IN 
NORTHWEST POLK COUNTY FROM JOHNSTON TOWARD THE DALLAS AND BOONE 
COUNTY LINES.

FIVE INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR JESTER PARK VIA LOCAL TELEVISION 
STATIONS...WHILE THE POLK COUNTY SHERIFF HAS RELAYED A REPORT OF 
WATER OVER THE ROAD ALONG HIGHWAY 17 AT 122ND AVENUE NEAR THE DES 
MOINES RIVER BRIDGE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
WOODWARD...POLK CITY...MADRID AND ANKENY.  BEAVER CREEK AND ITS 
ADJACENT TRIBUTARIES MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 4164 9390 4200 9416 4200 9375 4193 9370
      4186 9370 4186 9365 4164 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 180DEG 0KT 4169 9378

$$

SMALL

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 260615
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
115 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

IAC015-049-153-260617-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FF.W.0103.000000T0000Z-080626T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOONE IA-POLK IA-DALLAS IA-
115 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN
DALLAS...NORTHWESTERN POLK AND SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTIES...

AT 100 AM CDT...COMMUNICATION WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT RESULTED IN 
NO REPORTS OF FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  ALTHOUGH VARIOUS 
AUTOMATED AND MANUAL RAIN GAGES REPORTED ANYWHERE FROM TWO TO FIVE 
INCH RAINS THROUGHOUT THE WARNED AREA...TOP SOILS APPEAR TO HAVE 
DRIED OUT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH 
THE HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THEREFORE...THE WARNING WILL BE 
CANCELLED AT THIS TIME.  MINOR PONDING WATER COULD STILL REMAIN ON 
AREA ROADS HOWEVER.

LAT...LON 4164 9390 4200 9416 4200 9375 4193 9370
      4186 9370 4186 9365 4164 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 0607Z 180DEG 0KT 4169 9378

$$

SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS QUITE COMPLEX AS THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES
OVER/NEAR THE CWA.  CURRENTLY WE ARE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH 4000 J/KG
OF CAPE OVER THE SW THIRD OF IA BUT SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...GENERALLY
20-25KTS OR LESS.  OVER THE NORTHWEST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS
FROM A LOW IN NE MN.  THE FRONT EXTENDS INTO FAR NW IA THEN ALONG
THE NEB/SDKTA BORDER.  THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT BUT SO FAR IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE/SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS.  ALOFT...THE FLOW IS WEAK AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
SUPPORT.  HOWEVER...RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT
CENTERS...ONE OVER NW IA...PROBABLY AIDING IN THE SHOWERS UP
THERE...AND ONE IN NORTHEAST KS MOVING INTO SW IA.  CAPE VALUES IN
THIS AREA ARE EVEN HIGHER THAN IN SW IA AND THERE ARE NO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING YET.  HAVING SAID ALL THIS...ANY ONE OF
THESE FEATURES CAN TRIGGER STORMS TONIGHT AT ANY TIME.  THE LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR IS THE PERPLEXING PART.

MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE BETTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LOW.  I
WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO INITIATE THERE THEN TRAVEL DOWN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.  I BELIEVE THE NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE SCENARIO DEVELOPING THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE THE
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG INTO THE HIGH CAPE AREA.  LATER TONIGHT A
LLJ DEVELOPS AND THIS WILL PROBABLY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
MCS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  WITH
THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OVER JUST WHERE INITIATION WILL BEGIN
I HAVE PLACED CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA FOR TONIGHT.  THE HIGHEST
POPS STILL REMAIN NORTH BUT WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTH...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DOWN THERE WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /THU-WED/...
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD REMAINS WITHIN THE FIRST 60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. THE BIGGER SHOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING THEN ROLL THROUGH
SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. SOME SFC HEATING IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP FOR
THE STORMS TO FEED ON. SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. GOOD
INSTABILITY LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MIX LAYER CAPES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG HOWEVER THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH. STILL ENOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN FOR SOME SEVERE MULTICELL
STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPER CELLS.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SLOWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING CYCLONIC
FLOW TO IOWA. HAVE COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ADDED LOW POPS TO
THE NORTHEAST FOR EACH AFTERNOON AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GRADUALLY WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
VERY WELL.  LOW PRESSURE OVER MN HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NR
NW IA THEN INTO SERN SDKTA AND NRN NEB.  THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BREAKING OUT PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH WEAK TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE
BASED LARGELY ON CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  ONCE THE STORMS START
TO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD GO QUICKLY IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WE ARE
IN.  WE MAY NEED THE HELP OF THE LLJ TO GET THINGS GOING.  IN THAT
CASE IT WOULD BE LATER THIS EVENING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE STORMS MAY FIRE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT IN WHICH CASE THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WOULD ALSO BE AT RISK OF STORMS.  I HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS SAT PIX SHOWING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER
SRN/CENT NEB.  MVFR COND W/ LCL IFR COND WL PREVAIL IN TSRA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...DONAVON
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
402 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-262115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
402 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WITH TORNADOES A SECONDARY THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS ON
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

IAZ057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-262115-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
402 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A FEW RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE DES MOINES
RIVER BELOW SAYLORVILLE RESERVOIR AND THE LOWER SOUTH SKUNK
RIVER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WITH TORNADOES A SECONDARY THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS ON
FRIDAY.

RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK ALONG THE DES
MOINES RIVER BELOW SAYLORVILLE AND THE LOWER SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
BASIN. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...BUT WILL BE MONITORED
IN THE EVENT THAT HEAVY RAINFALL ELEVATES RIVER LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
814 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     N WELLSBURG             42.44N 92.93W
06/25/2008                   GRUNDY             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED STRONG ROTATION AND A DEVELOPING
            FUNNEL CLOUD...NOT ON THE GROUND...ON HIGHWAY T19 ABOUT 5
            MILES NORTH OF WELLSBURG.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
822 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     HAIL             HUXLEY                  41.90N 93.60W
06/25/2008  E0.75 INCH       STORY              IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KCCI RELAYED REPORT FROM PUBLIC OF 3/4 INCH HAIL IN
            HUXLEY.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
827 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     HAIL             DANA                    42.11N 94.24W
06/25/2008  E0.88 INCH       GREENE             IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KCCI RELAYED REPORT FROM PUBLIC OF NICKEL HAIL IN DANA.

&&

COGIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
833 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             6 NE MADRID             41.94N 93.74W
06/25/2008  M3.00 INCH       BOONE              IA   NSSL-SHAVE

            OBLONG HAIL SIZE UP TO 3.25 INCHES.

&&

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
835 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     HAIL             GRAND JUNCTION          42.03N 94.24W
06/25/2008  E1.50 INCH       GREENE             IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FROM KCCI-TV VIEWER

&&

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
842 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N TOLEDO              42.02N 92.58W
06/25/2008  E60 MPH          TAMA               IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TOLEDO FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS WIND GUSTING TO ESTIMATED
            60 MPH ABOUT TWO MILES NORTH OF TOLEDO.

&&

LEE