Flash Flood Warning 102, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 141645
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1144 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

IAC153-142030-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-080614T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POLK IA-
1144 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY...

WATER CONTINUED TO SURGE INTO THE BIRDLAND PARK AREA NEAR NORTH HIGH 
SCHOOL AFTER A LEVEE FAILURE ALONG THE DES MOINES RIVER NEAR 7TH 
AVENUE AND NEW YORK AVENUE.  ATTEMPTS AT BUILDING ANOTHER LEVEE TO 
CONTAIN THE WATER ALONG SECOND AVENUE HAVE FAILED AND WATER IS STILL 
SURGING EASTWARD INTO RESIDENTIAL AREAS...APPROACHING UNION PARK. 
 
A MANDATORY EVACUATION REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE ZONE ONE 500 YEAR 
FLOOD PLAIN BOUNDED BY THE RIVER ON THE WEST...NEW YORK AVENUE ON 
THE NORTH...SAYLOR ROAD ON THE EAST...AND GUTHRIE AVENUE ON THE 
SOUTH.  THOSE EVACUATING SHOULD GO TO HARDING MIDDLE SCHOOL AT 203 
EAST EUCLID.  TRANSPORTATION IS AVAILABLE FROM UNION PARK.

FLOODING MAY BE SEVERAL FEET DEEP IN PLACES AND THE WATER IN THE 
BIRDLAND PARK AREA CONTINUES TO RISE.  OFFICIALS REQUEST THAT 
THE PUBLIC STAY AWAY FROM THIS AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL TRAFFIC IN THIS 
AREA WILL ONLY DELAY PROGRESS. ONCE PLEASE AGAIN STAY OUT OF THIS 
AREA

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. 

LAT...LON 4165 9367 4165 9356 4154 9350 4156 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 1623Z 180DEG 0KT 4160 9361

$$

SMALL

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 141933
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
231 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

IAC153-142030-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-080614T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POLK IA-
231 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY...

AT 228 PM CDT...WATER CONTINUED TO POUR INTO THE BIRDLAND PARK AREA 
NEAR NORTH HIGH 
SCHOOL AFTER A LEVEE FAILURE ALONG THE DES MOINES RIVER NEAR 7TH 
AVENUE AND NEW YORK AVENUE.  ATTEMPTS AT BUILDING ANOTHER LEVEE TO 
CONTAIN THE WATER ALONG SECOND AVENUE HAVE FAILED AND WATER IS STILL 
SURGING EASTWARD INTO RESIDENTIAL AREAS...APPROACHING UNION PARK. 
 
A MANDATORY EVACUATION REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE ZONE ONE 500 YEAR 
FLOOD PLAIN BOUNDED BY THE RIVER ON THE WEST...NEW YORK AND BECKWITH 
AVENUES ON THE NORTH...SAYLOR ROAD ON THE EAST...AND GUTHRIE AVENUE 
ON THE SOUTH.  THOSE EVACUATING SHOULD GO TO HARDING MIDDLE SCHOOL 
AT 203 EAST EUCLID.  TRANSPORTATION IS AVAILABLE FROM UNION PARK.

FLOODING MAY BE SEVERAL FEET DEEP IN PLACES AND THE WATER IN THE 
BIRDLAND PARK AREA CONTINUES TO RISE.  OFFICIALS REQUEST THAT 
THE PUBLIC STAY AWAY FROM THIS AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL TRAFFIC IN THIS 
AREA WILL ONLY DELAY PROGRESS. ONCE PLEASE AGAIN STAY OUT OF THIS 
AREA

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. 


LAT...LON 4165 9367 4165 9356 4154 9350 4156 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 180DEG 0KT 4160 9361

$$

SMALL

000 
WGUS73 KDMX 142037
FFSDMX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

IAC153-142039-
/O.EXP.KDMX.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-080614T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POLK IA-
335 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL POLK
COUNTY...

AT 329 PM...THE POLK COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER HAS REPORTED 
THAT WATER FLOWS BEYOND THE SECONDARY LEVEE BREACH ALONG SECOND 
AVENUE HAVE STABILIZED AND ARE NO LONGER THREATENING NEW AREAS.  
SINCE EXPANSION OF THE FLOODED AREA IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS 
TIME...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER RIVER CURRENT CONTINUES TO FLOW THROUGH AREAS THAT HAVE 
ALREADY BEEN INUNDATED AND IT IS STILL A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  
A MANDATORY EVACUATION REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE ZONE ONE 500 YEAR 
FLOOD PLAIN BOUNDED BY THE RIVER ON THE WEST...BECKWITH AND NEW YORK 
AVENUES ON THE NORTH...SAYLOR ROAD ON THE EAST...AND GUTHRIE AVENUE 
ON THE SOUTH.  THOSE EVACUATING SHOULD GO TO HARDING MIDDLE SCHOOL 
AT 203 EAST EUCLID.  TRANSPORTATION IS AVAILABLE FROM UNION PARK.

FLOODING REMAINS SEVERAL FEET DEEP IN PLACES.  OFFICIALS REQUEST 
THAT THE PUBLIC STAY AWAY FROM THIS AREA.  ANY ADDITIONAL TRAFFIC IN 
THIS AREA WILL ONLY HINDER POLICE...FIRE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
PERSONNEL.  ONCE AGAIN PLEASE STAY OUT OF THIS AREA

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DES MOINES RIVER THROUGH THE CITY OF 
DES MOINES REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE. 

LAT...LON 4165 9367 4165 9356 4154 9350 4156 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 180DEG 0KT 4160 9361

$$

SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
641 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S ACRS THE CNTRL AND SOUTH. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND COMBINED WITH
A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE SFC WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 80S.
EXPECT A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY OVER NORTHERN IOWA WITH
DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE 50S WITH A BOUNDARY LOCATED IN THIS
REGION. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVR WYOMING IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER
IOWA NEAR PEAK HEATING AND THIS SHOULD SPARK A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY
21Z. RATHER WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THOUGH THE LAYER TODAY HOWEVER
GOOD SPEED SHEAR IS INTACT AND THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR
SUPERCELLS. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GOOD UPDRAFTS SHOULD
BECOME SUSTAINED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COOL MID LEVELS CREATING
GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH A MELTING LAYER AT OR
BELOW 12 KFT WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. TORNADIC POTENTIAL FAIRLY LOW WITH
UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH SFC FLOW FROM THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AND RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS.

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND BASE OF MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
REGION TO DROP THROUGH DAKOTAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. MAY HAVE SOME INITIAL CONVECTION
ONGOING FROM THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
CWA ALONG AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THEN AS THE ABOVE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA MAY GET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT
MOVING THROUGH NRN IA. AS FRONT BECOMES DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY
ALONG A WATERLOO TO ATLANTIC LINE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN WARM SECTOR. FRONT QUICKLY SAGS SOUTH OF THE
CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT DID GO WITH SLOWER NAM/EC TIMING AS GFS
SEEMS TOO FAST. HOWEVER ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE
TIMING OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. OTHERWISE WITH FRONT LINGERING INTO
THE NRN MO/SE IA AREA BY LATE EVENING...AND SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
STILL PRESENT MAY SEE A FEW POST-FRONTAL ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE
SRN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO
THE CWA...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS
ADVERTISING H85 TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND +3C SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
EC/NAM REMAINING A BIT WARMER. FOLLOWED THE WARMER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME...BUT DID TREND TEMPS DOWNWARD WITH RELATIVELY COOL AIR MOVING
INTO THE CWA. OTHERWISE WITH MAIN VORTEX SLIDING EASTWARD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AN ISSUE SO
HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...AND H85 TEMPS IN THE AROUND +10C INTO THE TEENS...EXPECT
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...14/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST 20Z FOR ALL SITES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN 3 TAF SITES (FOD/MCW/ALO) LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT. CHANCES IN THE FIRST 12 HRS IN AT ANY ONE SITE NOT
GREAT WITH BETTER CHANCES AFTER THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING.
&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...DONAVON
LONG TERM...ALBRECHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
515 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-151000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
515 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT..WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
AGAIN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH
TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ALBRECHT