Areal Flood Warning 49, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA.  THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING.  WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST AND THE SURFACE FRONT STILL IN
WESTERN IOWA...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.  A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY WE CAN CLEAR OUT AND WARM UP.  THIS SYSTEM IS VERY
COLD...IN FACT IT HAD PRODUCED SNOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS.  THUS FOR
CENTRAL IOWA...WE ARE SEEING A LOT OF STRATUS DEVELOPING.  WITH THE
SYSTEM BEING AS DYNAMIC AS IT IS I THINK WE WILL BREAK OUT OF THE
STRATUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND STORMS SHOULD RE-FIRE ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA.

BEYOND TODAY...THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAGS
BEHIND BUT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF IOWA MAKING FOR A DRY DAY FRIDAY WITH
STILL SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.  WE WARM UP ON SATURDAY AND
REMAIN DRY.  ON SUNDAY HOWEVER... ALL MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY BUT THIS SHOULD BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE THUS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED...
THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR.  LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...12/12Z
A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE STATE AT 12Z.  THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TODAY AND BE ALONG AN ALO TO LWD LINE BY 20Z.  SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK.  SCT
STRONG TSRA ARE XPCTD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTN AROUND PEAK
HTG AND MOVING OUT OF THE TAF SITES EARLY EVENING.  LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PERSIST EAST THROUGH 06Z.  MVFR/LCL IFR COND
XPCTD THROUGH THE MORNING AND LATER AFTN.  VFR/MVFR COND XPCTD
DURING THE EARLY AFTN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MADISON-MARSHALL-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
422 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

IAZ073>075-083>086-094>097-131100-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
422 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A SMALL PART OF THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THE MAIN THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE LIKELY WITH
ANY STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>072-081-
082-092-093-131100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
422 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEVERE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY STORM.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

NUMEROUS AREAL AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FAB

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