Tornado Warning 9, NWS Duluth, MN

000 
WWUS53 KDLH 150131
SVSDLH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
830 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

MNC061-071-150215-
/O.CON.KDLH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080615T0215Z/
KOOCHICHING MN-ITASCA MN-
830 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL ITASCA AND SOUTHEASTERN KOOCHICHING COUNTIES...

AT 829 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BIGFORK...OR 41
MILES NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS...MOVING EAST AT 21 MPH.

THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  EFFIE AND 9 MILES SOUTH OF CRAIGVILLE THROUGH 845 PM...
  BIGFORK BY 845 PM...
  COON LAKE BY 900 PM...
  8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEAR LAKE BY 915 PM...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 70 MPH.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 4790 9317 4773 9322 4772 9323 4771 9323
      4762 9326 4761 9328 4777 9393 4793 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 291DEG 18KT 4780 9374

$$

MELDE

000 
WWUS53 KDLH 150153
SVSDLH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
853 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

MNC061-071-150203-
/O.CAN.KDLH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080615T0215Z/
KOOCHICHING MN-ITASCA MN-
853 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL ITASCA AND SOUTHEASTERN
KOOCHICHING COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED TORNADIC.
THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4790 9317 4773 9322 4772 9323 4771 9323
      4762 9326 4761 9328 4777 9393 4793 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 291DEG 18KT 4776 9358

$$

MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
334 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WITH
COOLING ALOFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND DAYTIME HEATING WARMING SFC
TEMPS INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME WEAK
UNSTABLE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA...WITH MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
500 TO 1000 J/KG. FARTHER WEST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NODAK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AS IT PROPAGATES EWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NWRN ONTARIO ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OUR FCST AREA BY
THIS EVENING...MAINLY OUR MN ZONES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
WEST MAY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BUT AS THE STORMS APPROACH AND ENTER OUR
CWA...THEY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER IF A FEW SUSTAIN THEMSELVES LONG ENOUGH...OUR WRN AND SRN
ZONES COULD EXPERIENCE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WX THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR PRECIP TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ERN PART OF OUR FCST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR WI ZONES...BUT THESE SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHLAND DRY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. BERDES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THRU SATURDAY...

EVOLUTION OF DEEP/COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN GRT
LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK..AND LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL BE RATHER
SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR FILL.  EACH MODEL/ENSEMBLE IS
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE DETAILS..BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN IS
QUITE SIMILAR.  THE COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED MON/TUE..WITH
THE LOW MOVING FAR ENUF EAST THEREAFTER TO PLACE THE WRN GRT LAKES
REGION UNDERNEATH STRONG WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON DRAPED FROM THE DAKOTAS
ESEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY. AS LONG AS THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
/WHICH CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE/ ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE..SUCH A PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR JUST ABOUT ALL PERIODS.

HOWEVER..AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH THIS TYPE OF A FLOW
PATTERN..INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES WITHIN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT ARE OFTEN
NOT WELL-RESOLVED SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY BY THE MODELS.. WHICH MAKES
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF ANY SUCH WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS RATHER LOW. PER COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS..WE WILL OPT TO MENTION LOW POPS WITH THE
SEEMINGLY BEST TIMING FOR ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION.. NAMELY MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MILLER

.AVIATION...

COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN..BUT
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TAFS SITES..WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KINL.  EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FIRST
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE WEST OF KINL THROUGH 22Z..WITH
MAINLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ELSEWHERE.  AFTER 22-23Z..ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN
WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES 00-10Z.  SOME STORMS
WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE
40KTS.  COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING..SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. MILLER

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  70  44  68 /  50  20  10  20
INL  50  63  42  65 /  50  30  10  20
BRD  52  70  46  71 /  50  10  10  10
HYR  51  73  43  71 /  50  30  10  20
ASX  51  72  45  65 /  50  40  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
354 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-151030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
354 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
THIS EVENING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS... WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT... AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-151030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-SAND ISLAND TO
BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
354 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... AND MAY PRODUCE
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT... AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.