Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
211 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FULLY OCCLUDED SFC SYSTEM POSITIONED JUST N OF MT/ND/CN BORDER AND
MOVG VERY SLOWLY TO THE NE. LOLVL MSTR AND TRIGGER MECHANISM
LACKING...BUT -20 500 MB TEMPS AND AFTN HTG IN DRY SLOT WILL
RESULT IN RAPID DESTABILIZATION LATE AFTN/EVE...SO SLGT RISK IS
RSNBL. CU FIELD ALREADY FORMING. SEE SWODY1 DISC FOR MORE INFO.
SOME POPS WILL PERSIST THRU FRI AS UPR LOW SLOWLY SLIDES AWAY. AFT
A BRIEF PD OF WEAK RIDGING...SEVERAL OTHER S/WVS SHOOT ACRS BORDER
COUNTRY OVR THE WEEKEND...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NRN PART OF OUR
CWA. MODELS STILL DEPICT AMPLIFYING UPR LVL RIDGE OVR MIDWEST NXT
WEEK. GFS STILL STRONGER WITH THIS RIDGE THAN ECMWF...BUT IDEA IS
THE SAME. TIMING OF PRECIP IN RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH
LATER NXT WEEK A BIT UNCERTAIN. KEPT TUE-THU PD DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY SLOT FROM DEEP SFC LOW OVER SE  SASK HAS SWEPT ACROSS WRN 2/3 OF
CWA WITH VFR DOMINATING. AREA OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS ERN CWA...INCLUDING
HYR...IS ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH UPPER LVL WINDS STILL
PARALLEL TO THIS FEATURE....EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE ANY IMPROVEMENT OCCURS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SFC
HEATING...MAY SEE SCT RW/TRW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALTHOUGH POPS
ARE LOW IN ANY ONE LOCATION. DLH TERMINAL FCST IS TRICKY AS MARINE
LAYER MAY TRY TO REDEVELOP/DEEPEN OVER AREA THIS EVENING ONCE
MECHANICAL MIXING FROM DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATES. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO FOR LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS REGION
TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR NEAR INL EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  68  46  67 /  20  20  20  30
INL  48  64  45  65 /  30  40  30  30
BRD  50  68  50  72 /  20  20  10  20
HYR  54  72  48  71 /  20  20  10  20
ASX  52  70  50  69 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

04/CANNON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
328 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-131030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
328 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF DULUTH. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL
BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LSZ121-140>148-131030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
328 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF DULUTH. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL
BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             FEDERAL DAM             47.24N 94.22W
06/12/2008  E0.75 INCH       NORTHERN CASS      MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LILES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
828 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             3 N WALKER              47.13N 94.58W
06/12/2008  E0.75 INCH       CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 PM     HAIL             WALKER                  47.09N 94.58W
06/12/2008  E0.75 INCH       CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0825 PM     HAIL             5 SW INGER              47.50N 94.06W
06/12/2008  E0.75 INCH       ITASCA             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

LILES