Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
552 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CASS/ITASCA/ST LOUIS COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS
EXPECTED OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH A FOCUS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FROM LOCATED FROM BACKUS... TO HILL CITY...
TO COTTON IN THE AREA OF INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS MESOSCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE SURFACE-4000 FT
AGL LAYER.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET POINTED RIGHT INTO THIS AREA..INTENSE LOW
LEVEL FGEN WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST 2-3 MORE HOURS UNTIL CONVECTIVE
COLD POOL EVENTUALLY FORCES DEVELOPMENT OF NEW UPDRAFTS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST.

THROUGH 8 PM... PERIODS OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL PERSIST..AND THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS RAPIDLY
INCREASING IN THE CORRIDOR FROM PINE RIVER TO WALKER..EAST TO GRAND
RAPIDS... AND HIGHWAY 53 BETWEEN VIRGINIA AND DULUTH. WE JUST
UPDATED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA.
 MILLER

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-271030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
340 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE FROM THE ARROWHEAD...IRON RANGE...SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA...AND AREAS EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INCLUDING
THE TWIN PORTS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
ON SATURDAY...AND OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-272045-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
336 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE
OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND FAR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE FROM THE ARROWHEAD...IRON RANGE...SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA...AND AREAS EAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INCLUDING
THE TWIN PORTS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH SHORE
ON SATURDAY...AND AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

MELDE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
602 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 W REMER              47.06N 94.15W
09/26/2008                   CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            65 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

SGOHDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
610 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             4 NW REMER              47.10N 93.97W
09/26/2008  E0.75 INCH       CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

MELDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
619 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             COTTON                  47.17N 92.47W
09/26/2008  E0.88 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MELDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
621 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             BACKUS                  46.82N 94.51W
09/26/2008  E1.00 INCH       CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MELDE

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