Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Duluth, MN

000 
WWUS53 KDLH 092226
SVSDLH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
525 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

MNC061-071-092245-
/O.CON.KDLH.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-080709T2245Z/
KOOCHICHING MN-ITASCA MN-
525 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ITASCA AND SOUTHWESTERN KOOCHICHING COUNTIES...

AT 522 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GEMMELL...OR 47 MILES NORTHEAST OF CASS LAKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 49
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARGIE AND BIG FALLS BY 530 PM...

LAT...LON 4817 9366 4775 9403 4772 9404 4800 9437
      4803 9437 4806 9433 4824 9426 4827 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 302DEG 43KT 4802 9411

$$

DONOFRIO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
456 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH
8 PM...

A RATHER DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF AXIS EVIDENT IN WV SAT IMAGERY OVER SE MANITOBA.  WHILE
MLCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS
PAGE..EVIDENCE FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TAMDAR DATA AND LATEST
SFC/RADAR OBS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT REALIZED CAPE MAY ACTUALLY
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG GREATER.  IN ADDITION..STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CAPE BELOW 3 KM AND
FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW FOR MID JULY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 50 KTS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND
SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY..AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY
THE LATEST KDLH VOLUMETRIC Z/V DATA REVEALING ONE SMALL SUPERCELL
JUST NORTH OF TOWER AND ANOTHER JUST SOUTH OF BLACKDUCK.

GIVEN APPROACHING WAVE/FORCING..IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHUD PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST 2-3 MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY TOWARD
SUNSET.  GIVEN THE LOW FREEZIGN LEVELS..LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT..ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS WHERE QUARTER
TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALSO INDICATE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
FINALLY..WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW..A NARROW AXIS OF
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CAPE/SURFACE VORTICITY AND SFC-1 KM SHEAR FROM
10-20 KTS EXISTS FROM NEAR KINL SEWD TO THE ELY AREA..AND IT IS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GENERATE A WEAK SPIN UP OR TWO THROUGH AROUND 00Z.
 MILLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-101030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
337 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION AND MOVE TOWARDS THE RANGE BY EARLY
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

LSZ121-140>148-101030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
337 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR....GENERALLY NORTH OF TWO HARBORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

CANNON