Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE CURRENT PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO FCST GIVEN ALL
THE MESOSCALE SYSTEMS THAT THE MODELS DO NOT CAPTURE. THIS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SINCE WE WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, MID JUNE
INTO EARLY JULY IS THE MOST FAVORED TIME OF THE YEAR FOR THIS
PATTERN SINCE SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS USUALLY TAKEN FOR GRANTED AND
OUR FCST AREA TENDS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE WESTERLIES.

WESTERN KANSAS WAS IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AGAIN
TODAY. STORMS WERE ONGOING AND POPS FOR THIS EVENING WERE HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

THE MODELS PUSH CONVECTION DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND STABILIZE
WESTERN KANSAS. SFC AND ELEVATED CAPES SHOULD BE LOWER ON THURSDAY
DESPITE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS(NOSE OF 70KT JET IN WESTERN KS).
SO TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 80S. GIVEN THE HIGHER STABILITY
OVER THE PLAINS, THE BEST CHANCE OF STORM INITIATION MAY BE ON THE
FRONT RANGE. BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD STILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN
KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DAYS 3-7...

THE LOW WILL AMPLIFY BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH MORE OF A NNW OR NW MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERRAIN FEATURES
TO OUR WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TEND TO STAY WEST OF OUR AREA. OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
STORMS MOVE ONTO THE LOWER TERRAIN.

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW AN MCS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WERE RAISED
TO 40 PERCENT FOR THIS SYSTEM.

THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW
FOR JUNE 26-28. BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SW KS IN
A FAVORED AREA FOR STORM CLUSTERS--NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
WESTERLIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  85  62  87 /  30  30  30  20
GCK  60  85  60  88 /  30  30  30  30
EHA  60  88  61  89 /  60  40  40  30
LBL  61  86  61  88 /  80  40  40  20
HYS  59  84  61  85 /  30  20  20  20
P28  65  85  63  85 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN24/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
427 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-201000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
427 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008 /327 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
PLAINS TODAY WILL HELP SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ANY STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE ACTIVITY WILL MERGE
INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS COULD BRING A THREAT FOR HAIL AND HIGH WINDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF A LIBERAL TO SCOTT CITY LINE.

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE CHANCES FOR THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

RITTERLING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     HAIL             7 WSW SYRACUSE          37.94N 101.87W
06/19/2008  E1.75 INCH       HAMILTON           KS   PUBLIC

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             11 NNE HICKOK           37.69N 101.13W
06/19/2008  E0.75 INCH       GRANT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HAIL             13 NE JOHNSON CITY      37.70N 101.58W
06/19/2008  E0.75 INCH       STANTON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             16 NE JOHNSON CITY      37.73N 101.55W
06/19/2008  E1.00 INCH       STANTON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
403 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

KSZ061>063-074>076-192145-
FINNEY-GRANT-HAMILTON-HASKELL-KEARNY-STANTON-
403 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FINNEY...GRANT...HAMILTON...
HASKELL...KEARNY AND STANTON COUNTIES...

AT 400 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SUBLETTE TO
10 MILES SOUTH OF SYRACUSE. THIS LINE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3740 10203 3797 10207 3765 10066 3739 10065
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 332DEG 39KT 3747 10081

18