Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
218 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO AFFECT WESTERN KANSAS TODAY.

90KT H25 JET WAS NOSING INTO SOUTHEASTERN WY AT 12Z THIS MORNING.
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CA, 130KT JET STREAK COULD BE SEEN.
POTENT UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE LARGE PORTION OF THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH HEIGHT FALLS OF 100 METERS IN WEST CENTRAL CA.
COLD POCKET OF H7 TEMPERATURES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM
PRESENTLY OVER NM. H85 READINGS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WERE FOUND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINED
ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN NE. 15Z
ANALYSIS PLACED WARM FRONT NORTH NEAR I-70. DRYLINE WAS WELL WEST
INTO CO. BY 18Z, DRYLINE HAD MOVED THROUGH LIBERAL AND JUST WEST OF
GARDEN CITY.

ALL DATA CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD YET ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE TODAY. DRYLINE IS FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
WOULD HAVE PLACED IT. IN ADDITION, SHEAR IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE. AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING, 0-1 KM SRH WILL INCREASE TO
OVER 250 M2/S2. SURFACE BASED CAPE IS ALREADY OVER 3000 J/KG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KS WITH 2000 J/KG CAPE FROM PRATT WEST TO
WESTERN KEARNY COUNTY. AS S/WV COMES OUT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY TORNADO THAT DOES FROM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND LONG TRACKED. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.

SATURDAY, DRYLINE WILL BE FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN FA BY
AFTERNOON. THE TRACK RECORD OF THE MODELS AND DRYLINE PLACEMENT OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS LEAVE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP STORM
CHANCES IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEST OF WHERE MODELS SHOW
DRYLINE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN. BY EVENING,
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS EASTERN FA ONLY TO SEE THE DRYLINE
MOVE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL KEEP POPS IN ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THIS REASON.

SUNDAY, WELL...SAME STORY...DIFFERENT DAY. DRYLINE REMAINS PRESENT
ACROSS WESTERN FA (INTO EASTERN CO). SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL
EAST DURING THE DAYTIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR THIS TIME. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY EVENING THOUGH.

DAYS 3-7...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD 00Z MONDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE DRIFTING
SLOWLY BACK WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BY
MID WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
CYCLE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE SET UP
JUST LEE OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE A GENERAL LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW RELATIVE MOISTURE RETURN
TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH DEWPOINTS AT
H85 RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS(C). THE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY BRINGING A
BRIEF NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE A QUICK RETURN TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
BETTER THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DWINDLING CHANCES BY THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT A WARM DAY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT
H85 RANGING FROM THE MID 20S(C) EAST TO THE UPPER 20S(C) WEST WHICH
WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGHS TO REACH WELL UP INTO THE UPPER 80S(F) TO
THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A GENERAL COOL
DOWN TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT BEFORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH INFLUENCE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PLAN TO DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT
TUESDAY WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...

A SURFACE LOW WILL PERSIST IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY WHILE A
DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER ADVANCES BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM COOLIDGE TO
LIBERAL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  90  63  92 /  50  20  20  30
GCK  57  88  59  92 /  30  20  10  30
EHA  54  88  58  93 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  59  90  61  92 /  20  20  10  30
HYS  63  88  62  89 /  60  20  30  30
P28  68  91  65  92 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043-
044-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

FN30/32/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1135 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090-241030-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-
HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-
BARBER-
1135 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

IT APPEARS THAT A REPEAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON STORMS WILL LIKELY ERUPT ALONG A DRYLINE THAT SHOULD
STRETCH FROM NEAR SCOTT CITY TO NEAR LIBERAL BY MID AFTERNOON. ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE VERY QUICKLY. NOT ONLY
WILL THERE BE THE THREAT OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL BUT THERE WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY AS THE
DRYLINE MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST FROM NEAR DODGE CITY TO WAKEENEY BY 6 PM.

IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNING IS
ISSUED...IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIVE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
TAKEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED...FIRST FROM SCOTT CITY TO NEAR GARDEN CITY
BY 3 PM AND THEN FROM NEAR DODGE CITY TO WAKEENEY AND HAYS BY 6 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085-241030-
HAMILTON-KEARNY-STANTON-GRANT-MORTON-STEVENS-
1135 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008 /1035 AM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH TO PRODUCE AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FIRE DANGER MAY RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

07/30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             13 NE DIGHTON           38.61N 100.30W
05/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       LANE               KS   PUBLIC

&&

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             10 N DIGHTON            38.63N 100.47W
05/23/2008  E1.00 INCH       LANE               KS   PUBLIC

&&

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
405 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             1 W SHIELDS             38.62N 100.47W
05/23/2008  E1.25 INCH       LANE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0359 PM     HAIL             LIBERAL                 37.04N 100.94W
05/23/2008  E1.00 INCH       SEWARD             KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

26