Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
251 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SHOULD BE A QUIETER EVENING COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT MCV
FROM THE MCS WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. A TRAILING AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOME
HIGH BASED SHOWERS EXTENDED SOUTHWEST INTO MY SOUTHEAST CWA.
OTHERWISE, THE APPEARED TO BE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO. THERE HAD BEEN PERSISTENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IN THIS AREA BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AS SURFACE WINDS
STARTED TO VEER WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED AFTERNOON HIGH TERRAIN
TSRA FORMING IN COLORADO. HOWEVER, WITH THE LACK OF GOOD UPPER
LEVEL FORCING OR STEERING, THINK THAT THIS SHOULD DIE OFF AS IT
REACHES MY FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY TSRA MAY BE NEAR ELKHART WHERE STORMS COULD FORM
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA.  WILL ONLY CARRY SMALL POPS HERE THOUGH.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA AT LEAST ON AN
ISOLATED BASIS AS MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL...SO
CAPPING SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. WILL CARRY SMALL POPS
MAINLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

DAYS 3-7...

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE
DEEPENING AND MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA ON THURSDAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL REORIENT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FOR
SOMETHING TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN
THE DAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA.  THE MODELS ARE SHOWING INDICATIONS OF LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MOISTURE POOLING TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT.  LAST NIGHTS ECMWF AS WELL AS THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO RUNS OF THE GFS ARE ALSO HINTING AT SOME QPF ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH REESTABLISHING
ITSELF ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE INTO THE UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100 THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOUT ANY DAY SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BUT WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE WEATHER
GRIDS FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AFTER 22Z. THE STORMS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  97  68  99 /  10   0  10  10
GCK  65  97  66  99 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  65  98  66  97 /  20  10  20  10
LBL  65  98  67  98 /  20   0  10  10
HYS  66  95  67  98 /  10  10  10  10
P28  70  96  71  98 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN07/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
446 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
446 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008 /346 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
733 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             2 N RYUS                37.53N 101.11W
06/24/2008  E0.75 INCH       GRANT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
736 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

KSZ075-076-250130-
GRANT-HASKELL-
736 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRANT AND HASKELL COUNTIES...

AT 736 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RYUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3761 10083 3738 10088 3739 10113 3761 10118
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 242DEG 10KT 3752 10109

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
822 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             2 WNW SUBLETTE          37.49N 100.88W
06/24/2008  E1.75 INCH       HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
834 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             1 S SUBLETTE            37.47N 100.85W
06/24/2008  E1.75 INCH       HASKELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MSCOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
853 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             5 W SUBLETTE            37.48N 100.94W
06/24/2008  E0.88 INCH       HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRJ

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