Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 011043
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
543 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

KSC067-075-129-187-189-011053-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-080601T1130Z/
HAMILTON KS-STANTON KS-GRANT KS-STEVENS KS-MORTON KS-
543 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MORTON...
NORTHWESTERN STEVENS...GRANT...EASTERN STANTON AND EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO
LIFE OR PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN STANTON...GRANT...NORTHEASTERN
MORTON...NORTHWESTERN STEVENS AND SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NOON MDT SUNDAY/ FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3759 10110 3726 10125 3729 10154 3769 10185
      3777 10174
TIME...MOT...LOC 1043Z 307DEG 39KT 3762 10152

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

NAM AND GFS BOTH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PCPN DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH OF OUR MID LVL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE GOOD WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS PRESENT.
ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WERE THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. NAM WAS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS
AND GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
ERN CO EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL BE LEANING TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN MIND LOOKS LIKE THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE HYS REGION
TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY. AS FOR THIS MORNING WILL USE A BLEND OF NAM
AND RADAR TRENDS FOR TRACK OF STORMS THROUGH 15Z.

GIVEN PCPN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED WITH HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY IN THE NORTH. BASED
ON 85H TEMPS AND MODEL SOUNDING IT APPEARS THAT THE COOLER MAV MAY
BE CLOSER THAN THE WARM MET. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE CHANCE OF
PCPN IS LESS LIKELY AND EXPECTING MORE SUN WILL TREND TOWARDS
THOSE WARMER MET HIGHS.

DAYS 3-7...

SHORT TERM WEATHER OCCUPIED MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT. THE
TUE-THU TIME FRAME WILL BE VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE PLAINS, BUT
EXACTLY WHERE IS VERY UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT. PATTERN RECOGNITION
POINTS TO THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF
OUR FCST AREA FROM P28 TO HYS WHERE THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE IN THIS RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE
ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY SO WE WILL NOT BUY
INTO THIS SOLUTION TONIGHT. BUT WITH A FRONT STILL AROUND ON
TUESDAY, STORMS CANT BE RULED OUT. A MUCH STRONGER BUT PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL BE IN OUR EAST, WITH NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES IN OUR FAR SW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. BUT
AGAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT TWEAKED VERY MUCH AND LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT GCK/DDC/HYS THROUGH 14Z. ANY LOW CLOUD
COVER WILL BURN OFF BY MIDMORNING AT GCK/DDC. UNTIL THEN, CEILINGS
WILL PROBABLY BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS. BUT GCK
COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR CEILINGS AROUND 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  64  89  64 /  40  20   0   0
GCK  80  62  89  62 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  87  61  98  62 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  86  62  97  64 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  79  62  82  64 /  40  60  30  10
P28  85  66  95  70 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/24/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
437 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-020945-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
437 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2008 /337 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STRONGEST OF
THESE STORMS THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY NORTH OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM JOHNSON CITY TO DODGE CITY. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH 9 AM.

ANOTHER ROUND OF NIGHT TIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME THE EXPECTED
TRACK OF THESE STORMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
HAIL NORTH OF A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH 9 AM THIS
MORNING NORTH
OF A JOHNSON CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE.

&&
FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
457 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 AM     HAIL             E GARDEN CITY           37.98N 100.86W
06/01/2008  E0.75 INCH       FINNEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

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