Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

SEVERE AND FLOOD CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHES
TODAY.

12Z UPPER AIR OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS, WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-100 KT
JET STREAK OVER WESTERN KANSAS. 850MB DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 9 C
THIS MORNING, BUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OVER AMA THEY WERE 17 C. SFC
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW 60S ONLY IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS
OF 15Z THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH PRESSURES FALLING OVER EASTERN
CO, THE MOISTURE HAD MOVED WESTWARD AS OF 19Z. 18Z SOUNDING THAT
HAD JUST COME IN SHOWS OVER 3000 J/KG FOR DDC WITH LITTLE CAP
LEFT.  STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO THE SCOTT CITY
AREA. A TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NW
KS, WITH THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALONG OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONE
STORM ALONG THAT BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY BECOME SEVERE, WITH GOLFBALL
HAIL REPORTS ALREADY COMING IN. TORNADO WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL BE THE FAR NORTH AND FAR EAST CWA. SHEAR IS NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE SO FAR WITH VEERED SFC WINDS SO FAR, AND LCLS ARE
RATHER HIGH. HOWEVER, AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AND LCL VALUES RISE AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL AND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

THE GFS AND NAM BOTH BRING CONVECTION OUT THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING, CONTINUING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HOW MUCH WE GET DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHAT MODEL IS LOOKED AT, WITH
THE NAM HAVING A OVER AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN ELLIS AND TREGO
COUNTIES. THIS WOULD EXCEED FLOOD GUIDANCE, BUT IT IS STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL GET THAT MUCH. HOWEVER, PW VALUES
GET UP ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THIS EVENING, AND THAT AREA HAS RECEIVED A
LOT OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. REPORTS FROM ELLIS COUNTY
EM INDICATES THAT THE SALINE RIVER AND BIG CREEK HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGH. MORE STORMS COULD PUT US OVER THE EDGE FOR AREAL OR EVEN
SOME RIVER FLOODING, SO PUT ELLIS AND TREGO IN A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
12Z TOMORROW MORNING.

TOMORROW, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX
POSSIBLY COMING OUT. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SFC FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN
INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS A
BIT IN THE NORTH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THE NAM
SHOWS CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD PUSH INTO
OUR CENTRAL CWA BY AFTERNOON. EXACT PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARIES WILL
DEPEND ON OUTFLOW, BUT SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY
OVER WESTERN KS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SFC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
BE THROUGH ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH NORTHERLY WINDS,
LINGERING CLOUDS, AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SFC BASED CAPE,
BUT SOME ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, SO INCLUDED SHOWERED WITH
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WORDING.

DAYS 3-7...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME...ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS AND SMOOTHING CHANGES.  THE 25/00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z RUNS OF
THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO ABOUT 120
HOURS.  THEN THE ECMWF PEELS OFF AN UPPER WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHILE THE GFS IS MORE BROAD IN THE UPPER WAVE IT BRINGS EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER.  SO...THE
LATEST MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF IS FAVORED OVER THE GFS.  THE DAYS 4-5
GRIDS BRING A CHANCE FOR STORMS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.  THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET BASED ON THE TREND OF LATE.
IN THE NEARER TERM...I LIKE THE LOWER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY IN THE MID
60S N TO MID 70S S.  THIS WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR MY WEDNESDAY
PERIOD OF SLOWLY RECOVERING TEMPERATURES AND SLOWLY BREAKING UP
CLOUDS.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARM UP INTO THE 90S OVER
MOST OF DDCS CWA BUT ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS.  SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GRIDS WILL LEFT ALONE
WITH NO POPS AND CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS.

FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...RAISED THE TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL AND
KEPT PRECIP NEAR NORMAL.  NORMAL LOW AND HIGH TEMPS ARE 82/56F FOR
DDC AND THESE SHOULD BE EASY TO BEAT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

.AVIATION...

SCT TO BKN CU WILL EXIST THROUGH SUNDOWN ACROSS ALL TAF
SITE...GENERALLY AROUND 050-060 FEET.  ALSO...EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS AT GCK AND DDC SITES THROUGH 23Z
...AND FROM 23Z-04Z IN THE HYS AREA.  VSBYS COULD GO DOWN TO 4SM IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  90  58  69 /  40  40  50  30
GCK  63  84  55  68 /  40  40  50  30
EHA  61  90  56  72 /  30  20  40  30
LBL  64  94  56  71 /  30  30  40  30
HYS  63  80  55  68 /  60  50  70  40
P28  70  93  65  76 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031.

&&

FN26/12/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-261000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
418 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008 /318 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO...RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL
RETURN INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
TO IGNITE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE FORECAST FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED INITIALLY IN THE SCOTT CITY
TO HAYS AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN MOST AREAS BY EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

06/01

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
642 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             2 N LA CROSSE           38.56N 99.31W
05/25/2008  E1.00 INCH       RUSH               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0635 PM     HAIL             1 W LA CROSSE           38.53N 99.33W
05/25/2008  E1.75 INCH       RUSH               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
643 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             2 E LA CROSSE           38.53N 99.27W
05/25/2008  E1.25 INCH       RUSH               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             6 NW SCOTT CITY         38.54N 100.99W
05/25/2008  E1.75 INCH       SCOTT              KS   PUBLIC

0435 PM     HAIL             10 W SCOTT CITY         38.48N 101.09W
05/25/2008  E2.50 INCH       SCOTT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
720 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             LA CROSSE               38.53N 99.31W
05/25/2008  E1.00 INCH       RUSH               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
721 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND GST     COPELAND                37.54N 100.63W
05/25/2008  E60 MPH          GRAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
739 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 15 WNW BLOOM            37.56N 100.13W
05/25/2008  E75 MPH          FORD               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN. VISIBILITY WASS LESS THAN
            1/2-MILE.

&&

BURKE