Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS83 KDDC 201555
RFWDDC

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008

...THE WILDFIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...

.SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID 80S. NOON. ANY FIRE THAT IGNITES COULD EASILY
GET OUR OF CONTROL. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>086-210000-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0010.080420T1700Z-080421T0100Z/
SCOTT-LANE-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-
MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2008 /955 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING. 

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
BELOW 15 PERCENT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WILDFIRES. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

12

000 
WWUS83 KDDC 210101
RFWDDC

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
801 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH EXPIRED...

.AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INCREASE, THE
RISK OF WILDFIRES HAS DIMINISHED.

KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>086-210215-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080421T0100Z/
SCOTT-LANE-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-
MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-
801 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2008 /701 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2008/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING. 

CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRES HAVE IMPROVED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

FIRE ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

500MB HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS OF 12Z AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. WARMER 700MB AND 850MB
TEMPS WERE RETURNING TO THE WESTERN PLAINS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND THE LEE TROUGH RE-DEVELOPING IN THE
WEST, LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE ONLY STARTED TO PICK
UP A BIT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
TONIGHT, AND WINDS SHOULD STAY AROUND 15 KTS OVERNIGHT. THIS
ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, SHOULD
KEEP LOWS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH TONIGHT. CONTINUED WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THE WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST BY TOMORROW, LEAVING US IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
LEE SFC TROUGH AND GOOD SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS,
WHICH COULD REDUCE OUR WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST. HOWEVER, NAM AND
GFS STILL LOOK LIKE WE COULD GET THE FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH
REQUIRED FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA. WITH THE DRYLINE FORMING OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES, WE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING LOW ENOUGH RH
VALUES. WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH WINDS, AND WILL LET THE NIGHT SHIFT UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S C AND PLENTY OF
SUN, HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING UP INTO THE 80S.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AND
MONDAY, WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP LOWS UP SUNDAY NIGHT, SO KEPT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE
FRONT SHOULD BRING DOWN 850MB TEMPS IN THE TEENS, SO CONTINUED
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE
OK BORDER.

DAYS 3-7...

THE GOING EXTENDED GRIDS LOOKED GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.  THE MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE LEVEL OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS AND SEEMS TO HAVE
LESS UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIP.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY AND THUS GENERATES
THE WIDESPREAD QPF.  ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER QPF IS EAST OF DDCS
CWA...AT LEAST 20 POPS SEEM WARRANTED.  IF THIS FRONT DOES WALLER
AROUND THURSDAY...THEN WE COULD HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP
CHANCES.  SINCE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD 20 POPS GOING FROM 24/00Z WED
NT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN GOING WITH LOWER 12(W) TO 15(E) POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT...I STAYED WITH THOSE POPS.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID LOWER MAX TEMPS A TAD ON SATURDAY AS THERE SHOULD
BE PARTIAL CLOUDS AND AN EASTERLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION FLOW.
ALSO...OTHER SURROUNDING OFFICES WERE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD ON MAX
TS.  OUR SOUTHWEST SHOULD STILL WARM TO NEAR 80 THAT DAY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
SINCE THE GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE EARLIER IN THE FORECAST TIME
FRAME...STAYED WITH THAT MODEL INTO DAY 7.

.AVIATION...

VFR STATUS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY, AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH
SUNSET.  SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNSET INTO THE 15G25KT
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO...ALLOWING A
LOW LEVEL JET TO SET UP OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  86  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  47  87  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  46  85  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  48  88  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  85  49  70 /   0   0   0   0
P28  52  83  56  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

FN26/12/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-201000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
326 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2008 /226 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

BREEZY...DRY AND WARM WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM
10 TO 15 PERCENT COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO
ENGLEWOOD. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER THESE WILL BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

24/06