Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

INSPECTION OF THE 07 UTC SFC OBS INDICATED A WEAK SFC FRONT ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER. 65F DEWPOINTS WERE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO DDC/GCK
WITH THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE 500MB CHART AND MODEL INITIALIZATIONS
SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHT FIELD OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY.

THE 00Z UTC MODELS ALL HANDLE THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY DIFFERENTLY. ALSO,
THE SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER OUR SOUTH MAY STAY PUT TODAY, WITH MORE
OF AN EASTERLY FLOW FROM DDC NORTH. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER
AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, SO STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW, OUTFLOW
MAY RESULT IN A SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS AS WELL.

STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF DOLLY MOVE NORTHEAST. PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT BUT POPS WERE INCREASED A LITTLE IN CASE A
WETTER SCENARIO ACTUALLY PANS OUT. THE ECMWF IS QUITE WET WHILE THE
GFS/NAM MODELS ARE MUCH DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC FOR SUNDAY. IF WE HAVE A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER AND SOME PRECIP THEN TEMPS WOULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE GFS/NAM
INDICATE. FOR NOW I DECIDED TO LOWER MAXES FROM DDC SOUTHWEST INTO
THE UPPER 90S AS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD FCST.

DAYS 3-7...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL STAY AS IS FOR THE DAY 3 THROUGH 7
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE STAYING CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE DOLLY UP NORTHWEST AND
THEN AROUND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO.  THIS WOULD
BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH THE ROCKIES COMING INTO PLAY...MUCH OF
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE LOWER AND MID
LEVELS...LEAVING US WITH MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAPTURE.
HAVE LEFT THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT POPS GOING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CLEAR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEN THE
CIRCULATION SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA AND WILL DROP POPS TO THE
TEENS WEDNESDAY AND DOWN TO ZERO BY THURSDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY FROM DAY TO DAY BASED ON CLOUD
COVER.  THE 850MB TEMP PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 100+
READINGS FOR OUR CWA INTO WEDNESDAY (SOUTH) AND THEN SOME COOLING AT
THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...ONLY KNOCKING
HIGHS DOWN INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY
STEADY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

.AVIATION...

ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST A
FEW CIGS AT OR ABOVE BKN150.  NO VSBY PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  72  97  72 /  30  30  30  30
GCK  97  70  97  70 /  30  30  30  30
EHA  98  70  96  68 /   0   0  30  40
LBL 100  70  97  70 /   0   0  30  30
HYS  95  70 101  73 /  30  30   0  20
P28 101  75 101  74 /   20 20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN24/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
459 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-271000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
459 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008 /359 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THESE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1001 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSE MACKSVILLE        37.91N 98.95W
07/26/2008  M3.75 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            THE RAINFALL WAS SINCE 630 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1008 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW DILLWYN            37.93N 98.94W
07/26/2008  M3.25 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            THE RAINFALL WAS BETWEEN 630 AM AND 945 AM.

&&

LEE