Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1230 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT
THE RIDGE IS INDEED STRENGTHENING AT A SLOW PACE. UPSLOPE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL ENSURE A CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LITTER THE
CWA...SO WILL NOT TOY WITH ADVANCED PLACEMENT OF THESE STORMS...A
BROADBRUSHED SCATTERED WILL COVER IT.  AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
THE FORMATION OF A LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH PATCHY FOG AS WELL. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE EVEN LESS
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL FIRE IN THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. SATURDAY WILL FINALLY DRY OUT AND WARM UP AS THE
RIDGE MOVES EAST AS IT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THIS SHOULD PUT AN
END TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE OVERHEAD. GENERAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL HAVE MUCH MORE LIMITED
MOISTURE PRESENT WHICH SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FORMING. WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL HELP TO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PERIOD...BUT FEEL THAT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE WARRANTED GIVEN THE SUPPORT
INDICATED IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE FORECAST MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LOW DECK SHOULD SET UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT...BUT THE CIGS SHOULD BE AT OT ABOVE
3000 FEET.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SOWKO
LONG TERM....SJC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
310 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

WYZ059-060-202115-
CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-
310 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1000 PM MDT FOR
A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE
HAIL THAT FALLS WILL BE SMALL AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 50 MPH.
ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN CHEYENNE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ061>070-202115-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-PLATTE-GOSHEN-
CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
310 PM MDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PANHANDLE. HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF SCOTTS BLUFF AND SIOUX COUNTIES...WHERE HEAVY
RAIN FELL WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAY PRODUCE LOCAL AREAS OF FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE