Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
345 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2008

.UPDATE...
BRIEF UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT CARBON COUNTY THROUGH 900 PM MDT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND EXPECT THAT SCATTERED
COVERAGE WILL BE OBSERVED DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEW POINTS EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
TONIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES...BENEATH THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THE DIFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENCE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ADD MENTION FOR PATCHY FOG EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

SATURDAY A SURFACE LOW IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND NORTH AMERICAN
MODELS OVER WYOMING. THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP USHER IN LOWER DEW POINT AIR ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AND
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NEXT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY WARMER OR WINDIER
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE DECREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHER BASED WITH MAINLY A GUSTY
WIND THREAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INDICATE A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE
AND WILL ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL BRING A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

SUNDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESUME IN THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION GOING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS MONSOONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY POSSIBLY BEING ADVECTED
NORTHEASTWARD.  PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TREND TO A DRIER REGIME
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSHES A SFC
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LIKELY SHUNTING BETTER MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
HOWEVER AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION.  SOME INCREASE IN
LATE DAY CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOME
MOISTURE TRIES TO CREEP BACK NORTHWARD IN RETURN FLOW.

&&

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE PRESENT NEAR THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS FORMING IN
THE MOIST LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WFOCYS
LONG TERM....WFOCYS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
930 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2008

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059-060-067>070-261530-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-PLATTE-GOSHEN-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-
PINE BLUFFS-
930 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.,.WITH A FEW OF THE SATURDAY
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AS ALWAYS
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURRING IN YOUR AREA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ061>066-261530-
SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-
930 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 50 MPH...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CRITERIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

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