Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
115 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF FAR SE WY INTO THE NEB PNHNDL.  HEATING HAS BEEN
SLOWED SOME IN THE PNHNDL DUE TO MRNG CLDS...BUT MOST AREAS GETTING
GOOD SUNSHINE AT MIDDAY.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SHIFTED E
TO ALONG THE CWA BORDER FROM CDR-SNY.  MOISTURE PLUME IN MID LEVELS
HAS REMAINED OVER SE WY INTO THE PNHNDL...WITH FIRST BATCH OF STORMS
GOING UP IN THIS BAND OFF THE NRN CO MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND MOVING
GENERALLY ENE.  CAP WILL BREAK IN THE PNHNDL LATER THIS AFTN AND
EXPECT A BOX OVER MAINLY ERN PARTS OF THE AREA.  WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A WEAK FTR OVER UT AT MIDDAY MOVG NE.  FTR
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCD WITH A WEAK JET STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
PAC NW UPPER TROF WHICH IS COMING ASHORE.  MODELS CONT TO SHOW
STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER WRN/NRN SXNS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THIS FTR.  CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH BUT LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW ALOFT ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL/NRN SXNS
HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT SINCE YDA IN WAKE OF UPPER TROF THAT MOVED
THRU OVERNIGHT MAINLY TO OUR N.  STORMS WILL BE SLOWEST MOVING IN
THE SOUTHEAST QTR OF THE AREA.  AFTER TONIGHTS STORMS...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FOR THU...ALTHO MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WDSPRD
AS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.  LOW LEVEL MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE AND IN FACT
MAY BE SPRDG WWD ON ENE WINDS THU AFTN INTO THE LARAMIE RANGE
FOOTHILLS.  MODELS AGAIN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING SOME LINGERING SHWRS
OR STORMS LATE INTO THE NIGHT ON THU MAINLY NERN PART OF AREA.
WITH DECENT HEATING IN THE MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS ON
THU SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...STILL ON THE WARM-HOT SIDE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....THE LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO QUASH THE
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE BROUGHT ON BY SURFACE HEATING...ALONG WITH
BOTH UPSLOPE AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE A GOOD BET
THAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE MORE OF THE SAME ONLY WARMER.
BY SUNDAY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO CAP MOST
ACTIVITY...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. MODELS
REMAIN ALIGNED...EVEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NARROWLY SPREAD...THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FURTHER BUILDING WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE THAT WILL MAKE THE 90S DEGREE MARK LIKELY ALL NEXT WEEK IN
CHEYENNE...WITH TRIPLE DIGITS LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEPEND ON RIPPLES IN THE FLOW...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN STGR TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE PNHNDL
THIS EVENG...WITH SOME PTCHY MVFR CIGS FORMING LATE TONIGHT AND
LINGERING EARLY THU MRNG AGAIN MAINLY AFFECTING CDR...BFF AND SNY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM....SOWKO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
940 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059-060-067>070-241045-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-PLATTE-GOSHEN-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-
PINE BLUFFS-
940 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.  AREAS MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA...OR GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRIDGEPORT NEBRASKA TO
CHUGWATER WYOMING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA EACH DAY.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD AGAIN PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY.  SEVERE STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT THOSE THAT FORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ061>066-241045-
SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-
940 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT MODERATE RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE AREA EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

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