Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
308 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
CONVECTION HAS STARTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  THE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA IS SLOWLY BECOMING
MORE UNSTABLE SINCE THE MORNING HOURS.  A CAP EXISTED OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA AT ABOUT 650 MB IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE CWA LAST NIGHT.  AS OF 19Z...LIFTED INDICES
WERE RIGHT AROUND ZERO.  ALL OF THIS LEADS TO EARLIER THOUGHTS OF A
LATER SHOW FOR THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
DURING THAT TIME THERE WILL BE FAVORABLE SHEAR...CAPE
VALUES...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  THE
STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND WITH THEIR SLOW EXPECTED
MOVEMENT...SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.  THE
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS INTENSE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES THE BULK OF THE STORMS INTO THE PANHANDLE
BY LATE EVENING AND THE AIRMASS STABILIZES SOME.  WITH THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE COMMON OVER THE EAST
PART OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
OVER THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE STABLE THAN
THAT OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH WED...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE REGION FRI. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP. FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO WESTERLY SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN
ESSENTIALLY FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL VEER TO
NORTHWESTERLY MON AND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER WY WED...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A HIGHER AMPLITUDE
RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF PROGS. A SURFACE BASED LEESIDE TROUGH FRI WILL
INDUCE A THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. SAT
THROUGH TUE WILL BE RATHER HOT WITH A CHANCE OF LATE DAY STORMS
FROM THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ACTS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNALLY TRENDED INSTABILITY. SAT STILL LOOKS TO
BE THE HOTTEST DAY. SURFACE BASED LEESIDE TROUGHING WED WILL PRODUCE
A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE CWA BY 22Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.  MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.  IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE EAST PART OF THE
CWA AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

WEILAND/JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
152 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2008

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059-060-067-068>070-070-031130-SIOUX-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-CONVERSE-
NIOBRARA-PLATTE-GOSHEN-PINE BLUFFS-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-
152 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM.  THE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY FORM ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME
TORNADOES.  THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS THAT PRODUCE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WYZ061>066-031130-
SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-NORTH LARAMIE
RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-
152 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM.  ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.  HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE LARAMIE RANGE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WEILAND

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