Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
134 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WHICH WILL CREATE A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY.
THIS SHOULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL 500
HPA HEIGHTS WILL DOMINATED MOST OF THE WEEK. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
FAVORS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
REINFORCED BY MID-WEEK AND THEN SLOWLY THE FLOW SHOULD MODERATE TO
A WEAK TROUGH WITH HEIGHTS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE FRONT IN MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SHOULD HAVE ANTICYCLONE
WITH IT REDUCING CONVECTION POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE CLOUDS
ARE HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS WILL SLOW THE HEATING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS STILL BACK IN EXTREME NW PA EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER OHIO. THERE ARE A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON
RADAR ALL SEEM TO BE WEAKENING.

TO OUR WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPE VALUES ARE MAINLY IN THE 600-1200JKG-1 RANGE IN MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. IN SE PA THE SREF CAPES RANGE 900 TO 2400JKG-1. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE THE HIGH RANGE A LOWER PROB VALUE.

ANTICIPATED THE FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER STORMS AND SOME COULD BE
AROUND SEVERE LIMITS. WATCH 638 ISSUED THROUGH 8PM/00Z AND WOULD
EXPECT ADDITIONAL WATCHES TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT AND SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION IN THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE LEAVES LINGERING SHOWERS FIRST
PART OF OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LULL IN THE PRECIP AFTER ABOUT 03Z MONDAY
IMPLYING A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOWERED POPS IN MOST
LOCATIONS AFTER 03Z TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER.

SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE START TO THE DAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP THOUGH LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP QUITE RAPIDLY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER THAN TODAY.
HIGHT TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S. DESPITE THE COOL
TEMPS...THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT AND THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HPA
HEIGHTS AND 850 HPA TEMPS IMPLIES SELF DESTRUCT CUMULUS AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. PROBABLY COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED REPORTS OF GUSTY WINDS AN PEA-SIZE HAIL...BEST CHANCE IN
MTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BY NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS WRN NOAM AND A
DEEP ANOMALOUS TROF TAKING HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN U.S.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME
DIURNAL RW/TRW EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR TUE-
WED. THE NEXT FNT IS FCST TO AFFECT THE AREA THUR-FRI AS IT SAGS
SWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN TROF.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST IS TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS FRONT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
POSE A FLIGHT HAZARD INTO THIS EVENING AS EVERYTHING MOVES TO THE EAST.

MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATE BUT A FEW PERIOD OF LOWERED CIGS/VSBY ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHOWERS APPROACH AND MOVER THROUGH. LINGERING MVFR IS LIKELY AN
HOUR OR SO AFTER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD END. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN TODAY WILL INCREASE MIST/FOG AND
THUS SOME PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AND 8 AM.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT SOME AIRPORTS. CHECK THE RADAR BEFORE
DEPARTURE AS THERE COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT
MIDDAY ON.

THE COMING WEEK LOOKS LIKE NO ORGANIZED PRECIP EVENTS AND
RELATIVELY COOL DRY AIR FOR LATE JUNE...THUS MOSTLY VFR AND SOME
MVFR DUE TO OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG. WE COULD CONTEND WITH ISOLATED
TSTMS MOST AFTERNOONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/TYBURSKI
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GRUMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1219 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-301630-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-
1219 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PUSHES A COLD FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ012-018-019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-301630-
NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-
LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1219 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A
DAMAGING WIND GUST IS THE GREATEST THREAT WITH DAMAGING HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PUSHES A COLD FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TYBURSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
250 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

PAZ004-291930-
WARREN-
250 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WARREN COUNTY...

AT 249 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR GARLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 34
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LOTTSVILLE AROUND 255 PM...YOUNGSVILLE AROUND
300 PM...SUGAR GROVE AROUND 305 PM...WARREN AROUND 315 PM...RUSSELL
AROUND 320 PM AND SCANDIA AROUND 325 PM.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62.

FORECASTER: EVANEGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
318 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

PAZ019-045-046-049-292000-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
318 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL CENTRE...NORTH
CENTRAL UNION...SOUTH CENTRAL LYCOMING AND SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON
COUNTIES...

AT 314 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF LOCK HAVEN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 33 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MACKEYVILLE AROUND 325 PM...LOGANTON AROUND
335 PM...CARROLL AROUND 340 PM AND COLLOMSVILLE AROUND 355 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 168 AND 203.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220.

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
319 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

PAZ004>006-010-292015-
ELK-MCKEAN-POTTER-WARREN-
319 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MCKEAN...NORTHWESTERN ELK...
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND WEST CENTRAL POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 314 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF KANE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 33 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WETMORE...AND JAMES CITY AROUND 325 PM...KANE
AROUND 330 PM...WESTLINE AROUND 340 PM...MOUNT JEWETT AROUND 345
PM...KINZUA BRIDGE STATE PARK AROUND 355 PM AND CYCLONE AROUND 400
PM.

FORECASTER: GRUMM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
324 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

PAZ010-011-017-292030-
CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-ELK-
324 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLEARFIELD...SOUTHERN CAMERON AND
SOUTHERN ELK COUNTIES...

AT 323 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BROOKVILLE TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUBOIS TO 10 MILES
NORTH OF INDIANA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR TROUTVILLE...AND DUBOIS AROUND 335 PM...
PORTLAND MILLS...AND TREASURE LAKE AROUND 340 PM...ROCKTON...AND
BROCKPORT AROUND 345 PM...BRANDY CAMP AROUND 350 PM...PENFIELD...S.B.
ELLIOT STATE PARK AND AND BURNSIDE AROUND 355 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 126.

FORECASTER: GRUMM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

PAZ028-050>052-292000-
JUNIATA-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-SNYDER-
331 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NORTHUMBERLAND...EASTERN
SNYDER...MONTOUR AND NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA COUNTIES...

AT 327 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SELINSGROVE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FREEBURG AROUND 340 PM...PORT TREVERTON
AROUND 345 PM...SELINSGROVE AROUND 350 PM...HUMMELS WHARF AROUND 355
PM AND SUNBURY AROUND 400 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 218 AND 224.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
147...ROUTE 11...ROUTE 11/15...ROUTE 522...STATE ROAD 61.

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
336 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

PAZ012-018-019-045-292015-
NORTHERN CENTRE-NORTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
336 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CENTRE AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CLINTON COUNTIES...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF BELLEFONTE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 24 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MILESBURG AROUND 345 PM...BELLEFONTE AROUND
350 PM...ZION AROUND 400 PM...HOWARD AROUND 410 PM AND BEECH CREEK
AROUND 415 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 150 AND 177.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...ALT
ROUTE 220...STATE ROAD 26.

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL