Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
108 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TONIGHT... WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL SIGNAL A PATTERN CHANGE...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SCT/NMRS TSRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MTS...BUT THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE SOUTH ARE KEEPING THAT AREA
SUPPRESED FOR NOW. EXPECT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH THE STRONG
JUNE SUNSHINE. SVR BOX COVERS MOST OF THE REGION...AND ANOTHER MAY
BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR THE SERN QUARTER. DROPPING HEIGHTS/TEMPS
ALOFT WILL HELP US TO REACH CAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.

SFC DEW POINTS KINDA LOW FOR SVR...AND CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH IN
WV/KY COULD ROB US OF A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MSTR FROM THE
LLJET. HOWEVER...SINCE TROF IS DIGGING IN...AND A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING...WE STILL EXPECT THUNDER TO OCCUR
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES AND THOSE
MOD CAPES PUT US IN A GOOD CHC OF SEVERE.

SVR THREAT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTN IN THE NW AND THE
LATE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL MTS...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
IN THE WAKE OF FRONT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING OVR MOST OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND/EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
THE MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE OF THE MTS...MUCH
MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WINTER SCENARIO THAN JUNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS CROSSING LK ERIE FALL TO NR 3C LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA ACROSS THE
NW MTNS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDS WITH PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING TUES AFTN AND TEMPS WELL BLW NORMAL FOR
JUNE...ESPECIALLY OVR THE ALLEGHENIES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THE MOST EXTENSIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WED/THU...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF THE COOL CONDS. MREF
PLUME DATA CLEARLY SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF SHWRS WED AFTN
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING ARND SOUTHERN BASE OF UPPER
LOW. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED AFTN...WITH
EVEN A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

GEFS DATA SHOWING UPPER LO LIFTS OUT LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN
MODERATING TEMPS. HOWEVER...NEXT SHORTWAVE REINFORCES TROF BY NEXT
WEEKEND. 00Z MREF PLUMES INDICATE A SATURDAY ARRIVAL OF THIS
FEATURE IS MOST LIKELY...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF
CONVECTION AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER SOME EARLIER SHOWERS...CONDITIONS QUIET AND VFR ACROSS CWA
AT 12Z AS WE AWAIT APPROACH OF A POTENT COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING ON AS
REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES ARND 40KTS SUGGEST A
GOOD CHC LONG LIVED SEVERE LINEAR SEGMENTS/BOW ECHOES. KEPT
MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT OF TAFS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
ISOLATED NATURE...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR AND ADD AS
NECESSARY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLIER.

FRONT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY VFR CONDS ONCE
AGAIN FOR TUE/WED/THU...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
EACH AFTN - ESP OVER THE MTS OF THE NORTH AND WEST - WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ABOVE 3KFT. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
126 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-171730-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
126 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ028-035-036-056>059-063>066-171730-
JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
126 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
111 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

PAZ006-011-012-037-041-161745-
CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN LYCOMING-POTTER-TIOGA-
111 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CAMERON...NORTH CENTRAL
CLINTON...NORTHWESTERN LYCOMING...SOUTHERN POTTER AND SOUTHWESTERN
TIOGA COUNTIES...

AT 109 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED OVER EMPORIUM...MOVING EAST AT 32
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR STEVENSON DAM AROUND 120 PM...WHARTON AROUND
130 PM...CROSS FORK AROUND 140 PM AND OLE BULL STATE PARK AROUND 145
PM.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS.

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
131 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

PAZ034-035-161800-
BEDFORD-FULTON-
131 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BEDFORD AND
SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED ON THE MARYLAND LINE IN SOUTHWESTERN
BEDFORD COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 39 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR RAINSBURG AROUND 150 PM...BARNES GAP AROUND
155 PM AND LOCUST GROVE AROUND 200 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 151 AND 170.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...ROUTE
522.

FORECASTER: DANGELO