Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
223 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND BECOME
LOCATED ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK STATE EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE WEEKEND SEEMS
TO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE MIDWEST. IT COULD
GET HOT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF
THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA FROM EASTERN OHIO WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING VARIETY WILL
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AS MENTIONED IN THIS MORNINGS
DISCUSSION...AND EXPECT A FEW SEVERE REPORTS ACROSS MY AREA AS
PULSING STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL TO
THE WEST OF MY FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS IN NORTHEAST PA NEAR THE
NEW YORK BORDER.

ALSO LOOKING FOR SOME SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING ADVANCING EAST OF LAKE ERIE...COINCIDING WITH LAKE ERIE
BREEZE.

RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT TO SOME STORMS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS DAMPENED (NO
PUN INTENDED) BY ONLY MARGINAL PWATS AROUND 1 INCH. SO EXPECT ANY
FLOODING TO BE MINOR AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING HERE. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
BECOME ISOLATED AROUND...OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING...SIMILAR
LLVL MOISTURE...AND NEAR CALM SFC WIND.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH VERY SIMILAR AMBIENT
CONDITIONS...BEGINNING WITH SOME THICK LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG BEFORE 14Z. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA...PERHAPS OVER WRN NY. THIS WILL HELP A
FEW STORMS PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL...AND A JET STREAK THAT SHOULD
BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH MAY ENHANCE THE DEEP- LAYER SHEAR. SO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AND SPC HAS US INCLUDED IN THEIR
SEE TEXT AREA FOR LCLY SVR PULSE STORMS. WILL LEAVE THE ENHANCED
WORDING IN THERE FOR NOW WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD...BUT
LIFTS OUT BY LATE WEEKEND INITIATING A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE
WEATHER.

HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE LOW SATURDAY...AND MAY HELP SCT SHOWERS TO
POP IN THE NE COUNTIES. THEN...THE LOW OPENS AND THE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT LEAVING SUN/MON DRY. PATTERN OVER PA BECOMES MORE ZONAL THEN
RIDGING BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE SE AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SPIN ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...AND THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY SPRAY
A SHORTWAVE OUR WAY IN THE UPPER FLOW. SO MENTION OF LOW CHANCE
SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS IN ORDER FOR MIDWEEK AS TEMPS RETURN BACK TO OR
EVEN A BIT ABOVE AUGUST NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL FOG WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL LIFT TO
VFR CONDS BTWN 13-15Z AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE...
BIT VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
TIME THROUGH MID EVENING.

BEYOND THIS EVENING...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE FOG AS LOCALLY
DENSE AREAS OF RADIATION FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT. IFR AND LIFR
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY RESULT AT SOME TERMINALS...MAINLY THOSE
THAT SEE A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ROTATE THRU THE AREA
FRIDAY/FRI NITE...BRINGING ONE MORE DAY OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED
TSTMS. AM FOG SHOULD LIFT TO VFR CONDS BY MIDDAY FRI.
HOWEVER...BRIEF VSBY/CIG REDUCTIONS WILL BE PSBL IN AFTN
SHRA/TSRA. HIGH PRES IS FCST TO MOVE INTO PA THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING GOOD FLYING CONDS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
LITTLE CHC OF PRECIP.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DANGELO/RXR
AVIATION...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-150730-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
328 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
210 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

PAZ053-141915-
COLUMBIA PA-
210 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT ...

AT 205 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BERWICK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. A 15 TO 30 MINUTE PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM
THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL
ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SOME SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BENTON AROUND 220 PM...STILLWATER AROUND 230
PM...ORANGEVILLE AROUND 250 PM AND BERWICK AROUND 320 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 238 AND 241.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11.

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
258 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

PAZ058-141945-
SCHUYLKILL PA-
258 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 256 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POTTSVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 19 MPH.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. A 10 TO 20 MINUTE PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON
ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ORWIGSBURG AROUND 310 PM...DEER LAKE AROUND
320 PM AND NEW RINGGOLD AROUND 330 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 120.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 209...STATE
ROAD 61.

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

PAZ063-064-142000-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-
304 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL ADAMS AND SOUTHERN
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 4 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SHIPPENSBURG...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 19 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER
UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR PINE GROVE FURNACE STATE AROUND 310 PM...
BENDERSVILLE AROUND 320 PM...BIGLERVILLE AROUND 330 PM AND YORK
SPRINGS AROUND 340 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 40.

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
335 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

PAZ058-142030-
SCHUYLKILL PA-
335 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL COUNTY...

AT 329 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED OVER CENTRAL
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

STORMS WILL BE NEAR GILBERTON AROUND 345 PM...SHENANDOAH AROUND
350 PM...POTTSVILLE...AND ST. CLAIR AROUND 355 PM...SCHUYLKILL
HAVEN...AND PORT CARBON AROUND 405 PM...MAHANOY CITY AROUND 410 PM
AND LOCUST LAKE STATE PARK AROUND 415 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 133...AS WELL AS THE FOLLOWING
MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 209...STATE ROAD 61.

FORECASTER: DEVOIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
402 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

PAZ056-057-063-142100-
CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-PERRY PA-
402 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PERRY...NORTHEASTERN
CUMBERLAND AND WEST CENTRAL DAUPHIN COUNTIES...

AT 359 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF
CARLISLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE
OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR NEW BLOOMFIELD AROUND 420 PM...SHERMANSDALE
AROUND 430 PM...CARLISLE SPRINGS AROUND 440 PM AND DUNCANNON AROUND
500 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 236 AND 237...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 236 AND 237...I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 52 AND 64.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11...ROUTE
11/15...ROUTE 322/22.

FORECASTER: MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
434 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

PAZ066-142115-
LANCASTER PA-
434 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL LANCASTER
COUNTY...

AT 432 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST
PETERSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 11 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MANHEIM AROUND 440 PM...MILLERSVILLE
AROUND 455 PM...LANCASTER AROUND 505 PM AND LEOLA AROUND 515 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 265 AND 284...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 265 AND 284.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
283...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 222...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 501.

FORECASTER: MARTIN