River Flood Warning 9, NWS State College, PA

000 
WGUS81 KCTP 050952
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  FRANKSTOWN BRANCH OF THE JUNIATA RIVER AT WILLIAMSBURG
  LITTLE JUNIATA RIVER AT SPRUCE CREEK
  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  SHERMANS CREEK AT SHERMANSDALE
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  BALD EAGLE CREEK NEAR BEECH CREEK STATION
  SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT BLOOMSBURG
  SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT DANVILLE
  PENNS CREEK NEAR PENNS CREEK
  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY
  SWATARA CREEK AT MIDDLETOWN
  CONESTOGA RIVER AT LANCASTER

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATE THIS MORNING.

PAC061-052152-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080306T1952Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.080305T0713Z.080306T0000Z.080306T1352Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW MORNING.

$$

PAC027-109-119-052152-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-080306T2100Z/
/PNCP1.2.ER.080305T0653Z.080305T1800Z.080306T1500Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  PENNS CREEK NEAR PENNS CREEK
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.8 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.1 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON.
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE MORNING TOMORROW.
* AT 10.0 FEET...HIGH WATER OVERFLOWS BOTH BANKS. SEVERAL HOMES AND 
  COTTAGES ON THE LEFT OR NORTH BANK ARE AFFECGED. MANY SECONDARY 
  ROADS ALONG THE CREEK ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER LEVELS.

$$

PAC043-075-107-052151-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0007.080305T0921Z-000000T0000Z/
/HTVP1.2.ER.080305T0809Z.080306T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
* UNTIL THURSDAQY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNINGI IS CANCELLED.
* AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.8 FEET BY THIS EVENING 
  THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 14.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES ALONG THE CREEK ARE AFFECTED.  
  SOME EVACUATIONS ARE NECESSARY. 

$$

PAC043-075-052151-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0012.080305T2000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.080305T2000Z.080306T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY
* FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* THE CREEK IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING
  AND CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 9.6 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 10.0 FEET...A FEW HOMES ADJACENT TO THE CREEK UPSTREAM OF THE 
  ROUTE 39 BRIDGE FLOOD.

$$

PAC043-052151-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MIDP1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.080306T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT MIDDLETOWN
* FROM LATER THIS MORNING UNTIL TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
  CANCELLED.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* THE CREEK IS FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING...AND
  REACH CREST OF 13 TO 14 FEET OVERNIGHT.
* AT 14.0 FEET...RESIDENCES ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER ON BOTH BANKS 
  UPSTREAM OF THE VINE STREET BRIDGE.

$$

PAC035-052151-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0018.080305T1335Z-080306T0456Z/
/BECP1.1.ER.080305T1335Z.080305T1800Z.080305T2256Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BALD EAGLE CREEK NEAR BEECH CREEK STATION.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* THE CREEK IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING
  AND CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.1 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER LEVELS THREATEN THE COTTAGE AREA OF MILL 
  HALL DOWNSTREAM OF BEECH CREEK STATION.

$$

PAC013-061-052036-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0008.080305T1341Z-080305T2036Z/
/WIBP1.1.ER.080305T1341Z.080305T1400Z.080305T1436Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRANKSTOWN BRANCH OF THE JUNIATA RIVER AT WILLIAMSBURG
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THIS AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND
  CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 12.1 FEET BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE RIVER
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 12.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR SOUTH BANK OVERFLOWS. THE ROAD NEAR 
  THE RIVER UPSTREAM OF WILLIAMSBURG IS INUNDATED. A FEW HOMES 
  EXPERIENCE BASEMENT FLOODING.

$$

PAC013-061-051832-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0009.080305T1140Z-080305T1832Z/
/SPKP1.1.ER.080305T1140Z.080305T1200Z.080305T1232Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE JUNIATA RIVER AT SPRUCE CREEK.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  RISING TO NEAR 8.1 FEET. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  EARLY AFTERNOON.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE LEFT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS...AFFECTING 
  SEVERAL HOMES.

$$

PAC037-052151-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0019.080306T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
/BMBP1.1.ER.080306T1500Z.080306T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT BLOOMSBURG
* FROM THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING 
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MORNING
  TOMORROW AND CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 21 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY.
* AT 20.0 FEET...HIGH WATER AFFECTS THE FAIRGROUNDS AND THE 
  SURROUNDING AREA.

$$

PAC037-093-097-052151-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0020.080306T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/DANP1.1.ER.080306T2100Z.080306T2100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AT DANVILLE
* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW
  AFTERNOON AND RISE TO NEAR 21 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 20.0 FEET...INUNDATION BEGINS IN RIVERSIDE ON THE LEFT BANK.

$$

PAC041-052151-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0015.080305T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.080305T2100Z.080306T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* THE CREEK IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON
  AND CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 9.0 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERBS BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC041-133-052151-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0016.080306T0000Z-080306T0600Z/
/CPHP1.1.ER.080306T0000Z.080306T0000Z.080306T0000Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 4 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* THE CREEK IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT 
  ON THE RIGHT BANK OF YELLOW BREECHES CREEK BEGIN TO FLOOD.  A 
  MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR WILLIAMS GROVE IS ALSO AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$

PAC071-133-052151-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0017.080305T2200Z-080306T0724Z/
/LNCP1.1.ER.080305T2200Z.080306T0000Z.080306T0124Z.NO/
452 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONESTOGA RIVER AT LANCASTER.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.4 FEET BY THIS EVENING.
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER IN THE EVENING.
* AT 11.0 FEET...GROFFTOWN ROAD WILL FLOOD.

$$

000 
WGUS81 KCTP 051612
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1112 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  BALD EAGLE CREEK NEAR BEECH CREEK STATION
  FRANKSTOWN BRANCH, JUNIATA RIVER AT WILLIAMSBURG
  LITTLE JUNIATA RIVER AT SPRUCE CREEK
  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PAC061-060412-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080306T2152Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.080305T0713Z.080306T0000Z.080306T1552Z.NO/
1112 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.1 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.2 FEET BY THIS EVENING. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

$$

PAC035-060412-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-080306T0500Z/
/BECP1.1.ER.080305T0932Z.080305T1345Z.080305T2300Z.NO/
1112 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BALD EAGLE CREEK NEAR BEECH CREEK STATION.
* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS 
  EVENING.
* AT 11.0 FEET...HIGH WATER LEVELS THREATEN THE COTTAGE AREA OF MILL 
  HALL DOWNSTREAM OF BEECH CREEK STATION.

$$

PAC013-061-052143-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-080305T2143Z/
/WIBP1.1.ER.080305T1528Z.080305T1530Z.080305T1543Z.NO/
1112 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FRANKSTOWN BRANCH, JUNIATA RIVER AT WILLIAMSBURG.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.0 FEET.
* NONFLOOD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  MORNING.
* AT 12.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR SOUTH BANK OVERFLOWS. THE ROAD NEAR 
  THE RIVER UPSTREAM OF WILLIAMSBURG IS INUNDATED. A FEW HOMES 
  EXPERIENCE BASEMENT FLOODING.

$$

PAC013-061-052116-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-080305T2116Z/
/SPKP1.1.ER.080305T1513Z.080305T1515Z.080305T1516Z.NO/
1112 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LITTLE JUNIATA RIVER AT SPRUCE CREEK.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET.
* NONFLOOD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  MORNING.
* AT 8.0 FEET...THE LEFT...OR NORTH BANK OVERFLOWS...AFFECTING 
  SEVERAL HOMES.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1236 AM EST WED MAR 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT WET STORM ONGOING WITH FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND
MOD/HVY RAIN ELSEWHERE. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING
AS IT MELTS SNOW AS WELL. RIVER FLOODING WOULD BE MAINLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIVERS RISE. SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATION REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TONIGHT.

AFTER A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SCATTERED MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GATHER ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND HEAD TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH FRIDAY.
THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION OR FREEZING
RAIN OVER PA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED MID LVL LOW MOVG NEWD THRU THE
OHIO VLY THIS EVENING WITH -9MB/6HR PRES FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE
ASSOC SFC LOW OVR WESTERN PA. MDLS/ENS IN AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
THE SFC LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA LATE TONIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HVY RAIN FROM
CENTRAL PA SOUTHWARD THRU VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY LL JET. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES HAVE
REMAINED BLW FZG...AND HAVE RECEIVED A FEW HIGH ELEVATION REPORTS
OF OVER A HALF INCH OF ICE ACCRETION ON TREES. A FEW SPOTS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I-80 CORRIDOR HAVE DIPPED TO THE FREEZING MARK...BUT
NO SIG PROBLEMS EXPECTED. GRADUAL WARMING IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...AS SFC LO LIFTS NORTHEAST. WILL LEAVE
CURRENT ICE STORM WARNING AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY INTACT THRU
12Z. DESPITE THE WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT...SUSPECT A FEW HIGH
ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN BLW FREEZING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

LATEST IFLOWS AND MULTISENSOR PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE HEAVIEST
RAIN SO FAR /ARND 2 INCHES/ HAS FALLEN FROM FULTON CO NORTHWRD
THRU EASTERN CENTRE CO...PROMPTING FLOOD WARNINGS IN THIS AREA.
COMBO OF STG LLJ/HI PWS AND RT ENTRANCE REGION UPR LVL JET
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF MOD TO HVY RAINFALL
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL WARNINGS LIKELY TO
FOLLOW. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD/OCCLD FNT
THRU THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
THUNDER. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY WITH A SLIGHT SVR RISK. LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF SFC LO TRACK...COMBINED WITH
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN THAT AREA ARND 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/OCCLD FNT AS IT
EXITS ERN PA EARLY WED. DEFORMATION SHSN ALONG WITH BLUSTERY WINDS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A MUCH COLDER DAY OVERALL WITH TEMPS 5-10 DEGS
BLW CLIMO ACROSS WCENT PA. STG CAA AND 6HRLY SFC PRES RISES ON THE
ORDER OF 7-9MB WILL HELP MIX DOWN 25-35KT WNDS AT 850MB WHICH
COULD RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES ACROSS NRN PA WHERE HEAVY ICE
ACCRETION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BRIEF WARM UP ON THU...THEN THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN. MAIN
CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE NEXT STORM MAY BE CLOSER TO THE
COAST. MAIN THING GOING FOR A STORM IS THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION
AND THE LARGE AREA OF REAL COLD AIR WEST OF HUDSON BAY.

DID UP POPS AND SNOW AMTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION LIKELY
TO BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON FRIDAY...AS LOW LEVELS WILL NOT
BE THAT COLD.

OTHERWISE...FCST SIMILAR TO WHAT I HAD YESTERDAY. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INUNDATED WITH FLOODING CONCERNS TONIGHT SO WILL BE SHORT AND
SWEET. LOW CIGS...VSBYS...LLWS AND HEAVY RAIN /FZRA NORTH/ WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD...CREATING DIFFICULT FLYING CONDITIONS.

AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD 12-14Z...THE WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY
BEHIND THE SFC LOW PASSAGE AND WILL BE STRONG AT 10-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE P-TYPE COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN /KBFD AND KJST/ AFT 09Z...AS
IT TAPERS OFF TO SCT SHSN. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY OR JUST
RECEIVING LIGHTER PRECIP AFT 14Z.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT FOR LATER WED AND EARLY THU. BUT...A
FAST MOVING WEAK STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATER ON THU. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
FOR FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON ALL
RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE SUSQ BASIN. LATEST
GUID FROM THE MARFC SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING BY THURSDAY ALONG THE
NORTH BRANCH SUSQ AT POINTS LIKE DANVILLE/BLOOMSBURG...JUNIATA
HEADWATERS AS WELL AS SOME LWR MAINSTEM TRIBS.

ATTM...WEST BRANCH/JUNIATA/MAIN STEM SUSQ RVRS ARE EXPECTED TO
CREST AT OR JUST BLW FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...RNFL IN EXCESS OF THE
WDSPRD 1.5-2.5 ALREADY FCST WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD...BUT GENERALLY
MINOR FLOODING EVEN ON THE MAINSTEM RVRS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ010>012-041-042.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-
037.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ONDREJIK/RXR
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
536 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

PAZ017>019-024>027-033-034-045-046-049>053-051045-
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-
MIFFLIN-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-
SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
536 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM COULD
BRING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...OR WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. PLEASE REPORT RAINFALL
TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA STANDARD PROCEDURES.

PAZ028-035-036-056>059-063>066-051045-
JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
536 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM COULD
BRING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...OR WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. PLEASE REPORT RAINFALL
TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA STANDARD PROCEDURES.

PAZ004>006-037-051045-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-TIOGA-
536 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   ICE STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   ICE STORM WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM COULD
BRING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...OR WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. PLEASE REPORT ICE OR
SNOW ACCUMULATION...ALONG WITH RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE VIA STANDARD PROCEDURES.

PAZ010>012-041-042-051045-
ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
536 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.
   FLOOD WATCH.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM COULD
BRING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT...OR WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. PLEASE REPORT ICE
ACCUMULATION...ALONG WITH RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE VIA STANDARD PROCEDURES.

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
915 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

PAZ033-050245-
SOMERSET-
915 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT SOMERSET COUNTY...

AT 912 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF OLIVER TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF UNIONTOWN TO 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BAYARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR CONFLUENCE AROUND 920 PM...MOUNT DAVIS
AROUND 930 PM...SEVEN SPRINGS AROUND 935 PM...SALISBURY AROUND 940 PM
AND SOMERSET AROUND 945 PM.

FORECASTER: KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1235 AM EST WED MAR 5 2008

PAZ036-063-064-050630-
ADAMS-CUMBERLAND-FRANKLIN-
1235 AM EST WED MAR 5 2008

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ADAMS...CUMBERLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM EST...

AT 1232 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF
CHAMBERSBURG TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF THURMONT MARYLAND TO 4 MILES
SOUTH OF THURMONT MARYLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
VERY HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO ONE INCH IN 30 MINUTES WILL FALL FROM THESE
STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL
ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SHIPPENSBURG...WALNUT BOTTOM AROUND 1245
AM...SEVEN STARS...PINE GROVE FURNACE STATE AROUND 100 AM...YORK
SPRINGS...MOUNT HOLLY SPRINGS AROUND 115 AM...WERTZVILLE AND
HOGESTOWN AROUND 130 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 212 AND 233...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 21 AND 59.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11...ROUTE
15...ROUTE 30...STATE ROAD 94...STATE ROAD 97.

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1251 AM EST WED MAR 5 2008

PAZ057-059-065-066-050645-
DAUPHIN-LANCASTER-LEBANON-YORK-
1251 AM EST WED MAR 5 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING DAUPHIN...WESTERN
LANCASTER...WESTERN LEBANON AND YORK COUNTIES...

AT 1246 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SHIPPENSBURG TO COLLEGE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR LINEBORO AND WELLSVILLE AROUND 115
AM...HALIFAX AND YORK AROUND 130 AM...SKYLINE VIEW AND
ELIZABETHVILLE AROUND 145 AM.

FORECASTER: KF