Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
616 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FNT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TX ALONG
WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THE SEABREEZE AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WL BE MOST NUMEROUS TO THE NORTH OF A
LAREDO TO VICTORIA LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS WL CONTAIN IFR
CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40KT. THE COLD FNT WL
STALL ACROSS SOUTH TX OVERNIGHT AND NEVER REALLY PUSH THROUGH THE RGN.
HOWEVER A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WL DEVELOP BY 10Z. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE TO
THUNDERSTORM BLOWOFF. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND WL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008/

UPDATE...ISOLATED CONVECTION...BEING TRIGGERED BY THE SEABREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THEN AM EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWEST. THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CWFA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO MAKING IT
CLOSER TO THE COAST. POP AND ASSOCIATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT THIS. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE.
INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE IS LEADING TO ISOLATED CONVECTION AS
ANTICIPATED, BUT MORE CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST REVOLVES
AROUND THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. CURRENTLY TRACKING SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRUNG WEST-EAST FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO COLLEGE STATION, WHICH IS
PUSHING SOUTH AT AROUND 25 MPH. APPEARS CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IS GETTING A LITTLE BIT OF ASSISTANCE FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY TO OUR NORTH. BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL PUSH
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
NAM/WRF AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE THEIR DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDAY. THE GFS PAINTS
WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 06Z TONIGHT WHILE THE NAM/WRF IS
GENERATING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIP A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER BECAUSE OF THIS BUT LEFT
20-30% POPS OF MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ON
SUNDAY. KEPT 20% POPS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH THESE POPS SPREADING WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOW TEMPS STAYING A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

LONG-TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A PERSISTENT DEEP
LAYER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST...PROVIDING CONSISTENT NW FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BEGINNING ROUGHLY
MIDWEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE GFS KEEPS BETTER
MOISTURE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH...BOTTLED UP IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LEADING TO HIGHER
PWATS EARLIER THAN THE GFS. CONCUR WITH HPC THAT ECMWF SOLUTIONS
APPEAR MORE REALISTIC AT THIS DISTANCE THAN THE GFS...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION.

USED MAINLY PERSISTENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS EARLY...TRENDING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMALS.

AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR CIGS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH WESTWARD
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS/WAVES
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  92  72  93  72  /  20  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          71  94  70  96  71  /  30  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            77 102  77 105  76  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             71  96  71  98  71  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  89  78  90  77  /  20  20  10  10  20
COTULLA           72 100  73 100  72  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  95  72  96  74  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  88  76  89  76  /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

MB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
526 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-221030-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
526 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION...WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM REFUGIO TO MATHIS TO ENCINAL.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RFM/MG