Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
908 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

.UPDATE...ALL EYES WATCHING THE PROGRESSION AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST
CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. LATEST SFC
ANALYSES INDICATE A WEAK BOUNDARY/COOL FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN CWA...FROM JUST NORTH OF ALICE...NW TO JUST SOUTH OF
COTULLA. THIS BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF SFC
RIDGE CENTER WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
STATES. DONT THINK THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF OVER MEXICO AND
ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL WSW FLOW.

EXPECT CONVECTION TONIGHT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE OUT OF MEXICO
TOWARD THE AREA...LIKELY MOVING TOWARD THE SE DOWN THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF SFC BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE. EXPECT MODERATE CAPE AND
SOME LOW LEVEL SR HELICITY WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN LATEST TRENDS WITH CONVECTION COMING
OUT OF MEXICO...CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH ON STRONG/SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL
AT LEAST GET PRECIP. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO REACH COASTAL AREAS
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNRISE TOMORROW. PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GIVEN SOME LOW LEVEL SR HELICITY...ISOLD TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...EXCEPT THE EXTREME NE REGION. WILL ALSO KEEP WORDING FOR
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...AGAIN CONFIDENCE STILL A
LITTLE LOW. HAVE ALSO INCREASED QPF...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NOW
SHOWING AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD TONIGHT AND INTO
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO BIG CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL LATE TONIGHT. STILL HAVE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY/COOL FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE
15-20KT NNE FLOW TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. MAY LEAN ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND GO 15-20 KTS ALL GULF WATERS (SCEC) FOR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008/

SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF CONVECTION MOVING
OFF THE SIERRA MADRE INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TIMING OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT POISED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT S/WV CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS DURANGO MEXICO
THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE
ISSUE IS THAT DEWPOINTS STILL HAVE NOT RECOVERED FROM THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. THIS WILL THEREFORE DECREASE THE INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR THE S/WV TO WORK WITH THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS/WEAK SHEAR ARGUES FOR
POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THINK MODELS
ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE S/WV. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OUT WEST AND MENTION SEVERE ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
CWA WHERE THE BEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE SLOWEST PROGRESSION OF
THE SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO RESIDE (LONGEST RESIDENCE WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR). THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH COOLER (BELOW NORMAL)
TEMPERATURES FILTERING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS SETTLES
INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PLUMMET INTO THE 50S INLAND AND THE LOW 60S
COAST/RIO GRANDE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A MID/UPR LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE DRIER/RELATIVELY MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IN PLACE SHOULD HINDER ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PROXIMATE TO THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE.

MARINE (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH SCEC WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF FRIDAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE INTO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS BY SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. INSERTED
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS GFS/NAM SHOW THE
50H THERMAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA STEEPENING THE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF KEEP A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THE AIRMASS WILL
BE TOO DRY TO WARRANT MENTIONING ANY PRECIP CHANCES. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH BY THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE GFS
AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW UPPER LOWS FARTHER WEST OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RESPECTIVELY FOR THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS AND AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR SOUTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  80  59  82  63  /  50  40  20  20  20
VICTORIA          63  81  55  83  59  /  30  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            67  80  64  83  66  /  70  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  80  57  83  62  /  60  30  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          67  79  61  81  66  /  30  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           63  80  54  82  59  /  70  20  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        68  80  58  82  62  /  50  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       70  79  63  79  67  /  50  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

RM/33...SHORT TERM
MG/88...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1258 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-161800-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1258 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA SO NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF AN ENCINAL TO MATHIS TO PORT ARANSAS
LINE...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ALSO...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY BEHIND A LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

TM/TE/GW

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