Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NRN TEXAS WILL LEAD TO STRONG SRLY FLOW
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. MOST ENERGY ASSOC W/ THE UPR LOW WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT/H85 TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE TO WARRANT 10-20 POPS ACROSS NRN AREAS AND THE COASTAL BEND
W/ HIGHEST CHC ACROSS THE NE. BEST CHC AT BREAKING THE CAP WILL BE
ACROSS NRN COS AND WILL ONLY MENTION TSTMS THERE W/ SHRAS ACROSS
THE SRN HALF. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SW-W FLOW ACROSS WRN COS
THIS AFTN...BUT APPEARS THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL NOT PUSH PAST
HIGHWAY 281 OR SO. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE DECK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...SO TEMPS WILL BE RATHER WARM EVEN AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/DRY LINE/OR PACIFIC FRONT (WHICHEVER YOU WANT TO CALL IT).
WARMEST HIGHS WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES WHERE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN WEST FLOW AND LACK OF CAA.
SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER ALONG/AHEAD THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (ESP NW). VERY WARM H85 TEMPS AND
DRY AIRMASS W/ SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPS AGAIN ON THU
WITH LOTS OF 90S AND OVER 100 DEGREE TEMPS NEAR LRD.

&&

.MARINE...SCAS HAVING NO PROBLEM VERIFYING ACROSS ALL MARINE
ZONES. STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN...BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS
ENE AWAY FROM THE AREA. MUCH WEAKER WINDS ON TAP FOR THU AS THE
PGRAD REMAINS WEAK W/ THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WRLY WINDS OFF THE
DECK BEHIND THE WEAK PAC FRONT TO PROVIDE SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
ACROSS THE NWRN 3 COS WHILE RH VALUES BOTTOM OUR AROUND 10-20%.
SOME AREAS IN THESE COS HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN PAST
FEW DAYS AND SOME HAVE NOT. GIVEN VERY LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RFW
AND WILL EXPAND SLIGHTLY INTO MCMULLEN CO AS WELL.

&&

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED BY BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS TO ENTER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK ALONG THE FRONT WITH DYNAMICS BEING DISPLACED
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...H85 TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 20C OR GREATER OVER SOUTH TEXAS FURTHER INHIBITING
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED SILENT 10 POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF PROG
THE UPPER PATTERN TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED BY TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A MID/UPR LOW DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH/EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW...A STRONGER FROPA THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS MAY BE REALIZED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  67  93  73  91  /  10  10   0   0  10
VICTORIA          85  64  93  71  93  /  20  10   0   0  10
LAREDO           101  68 105  77 106  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             94  65 100  71  98  /  10  10   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          83  72  89  75  87  /  10  10   0   0  10
COTULLA           96  58  99  70 103  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        94  65  98  73  95  /  10  10   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  72  89  76  87  /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

MJG...SHORT TERM
TM...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
519 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-071030-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
519 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THE TAIL END OF THESE STORMS MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS NORTH OF A LAREDO TO TILDEN LINE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MJG