Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
339 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
ENSUING APPROACH OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH COMING INTO TEXAS
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  IN RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
STRONG ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT.
THE GFS/NAM STILL INDICATE 50 KT JET WILL REMAIN STEADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTH TEXAS. CURRENT
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 6MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE FROM THE SFC
TROUGH SW OF ZAPATA COUNTY TO VICTORIA. THIS GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN ANOTHER 2 TO 3 MB THIS EVENING. HENCE HAVE ISSUES A
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 00Z TO 06Z TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND AND GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTH TEXAS. A
STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM MIGRATING ACROSS
THE STATE PRECLUDING HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE GENESIS OF SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM
ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY
THEN DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THEY ENCROACH SOUTH
TEXAS DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 37 DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS
MAY CONTAIN HAIL...GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FEASIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES WITH EXCELLENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING IN HIGH
HELICITY VALUES PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST OF LINE FROM PORT ARANSAS
TO GOLIAD. FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HAD RETAINED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER THE
WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE SYNOPTIC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ZONAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST PD.  THE MAIN STORM
TRACK WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WX SYSTEMS
AFFECTING THE CWA.  A WK COLD FNT WL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY
BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW.  TEMPS WL
AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS AND THEN BEGIN TO
SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG AND GUSTY SE SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DETERIORATE AFTER 08Z AS THE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS
THE REGION. PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL THEN MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER
CIGS AND/OR VSBYS TO IFR FOR TERMINALS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING. SLY WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT. THE STORM SYSTEM USHERS IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY
WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GALE FORCE GUSTS.  WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFT
NORTHWEST STRONG THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ROUGH SEA STATE LIKELY
LATE TUES AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND TURNS WINDS FROM SE TO NW.
STILL THINK SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  75  49  74  45  /  30  70   0   0   0
VICTORIA          68  74  47  71  41  /  40  80  10   0   0
LAREDO            67  81  49  80  48  /  40  30   0   0   0
ALICE             69  79  44  76  44  /  30  60   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          67  72  54  72  48  /  30  80  10   0   0
COTULLA           65  74  45  78  42  /  50  30  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        70  79  46  76  44  /  20  60   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  72  55  73  50  /  30  70   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DUVAL...LA SALLE...
     MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20
     TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 2 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

SC/70...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
535 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-181045-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
535 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POWERFUL UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TEXAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH OR EXCEED
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO OVER 50 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM...WHEN THE
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IS FORECAST TO BE MOST PREVALENT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE COASTAL BEND.

VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS.

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE AFTERNOON. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...RESULTING
IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE AFTERNOON. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...RESULTING
IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 MPH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED ON TUESDAY.

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