Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 032316
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
612 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008

TXC479-040030-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080704T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEBB-
612 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...

AT 608 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED 
AREA...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF LAREDO AND 
THE COMMUNITY OF RIO BRAVO. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST 
AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE RIO 
GRANDE INTO MEXICO. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RIO BRAVO 
AND LAREDO. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED 
AREA MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LAREDO...RIO BRAVO...AND HIGHWAY 83 IN 
SOUTHERN WEBB COUNTY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2780 9945 2729 9897 2730 9929 2732 9938
      2730 9948 2755 9949 2780 9970
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 315DEG 1KT 2747 9938

$$

GW

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 040009
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
707 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008

TXC479-040017-
/O.CAN.KCRP.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080704T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEBB-
707 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WEBB
COUNTY...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS  
EVENING HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND 
MOVE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 8 PM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH 8 PM.

LAT...LON 2780 9945 2729 9897 2730 9929 2732 9938
      2730 9948 2755 9949 2780 9970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 315DEG 1KT 2746 9937

$$

TE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
342 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE GFS PROGS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE OVR THE CWFA BY EARLY FRI...AND
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...YET THE NAM PROGS THE TROUGH TO REMAIN
OVR THE WRN GULF...IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO THE W/NW BUILDING
MORE STRONGLY OVR THE CWFA...AND RESULTING IN LOWER PW VALUES/
GREATER SUBSIDENCE. YET MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ADDS CREDENCE TO
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLN. CONCUR WITH THE GFS. THUS STILL EXPECT
COPIOUS MSTR/INSTABILITY AND THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW TO
CONTRIBUTE TO GENERALLY SCT CONVECTION DRG THE PERIOD...WITH THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OVR THE WATERS DRG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND OVR THE LAND DRG THE DAYTIME HOURS. EXPECT THE LACK OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE BNDRY TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN. THUS WL NOT ISSUE AN FFA. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FRI. EXPECT MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN
BELOW 105F FRI.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...REMAIN FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN
OVERALL WET PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING DETAILS OF WHICH DAYS WILL BE MORE OR
LESS ACTIVE AS MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING SUBTLE
MOVEMENT IN WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE. FIRST
OFF...HAVE THROWN THE NAM SOLN OUT AS ITS DEPICTION OF A SHARP
H85-H7 TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W/ RIDGING AND STRONG DRYING
BUILDING INTO THE COASTAL BEND FROM THE NNE IS A TOTAL OUTLIER. ON
THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...THE ECMWF (00Z RUN) RETROGRADES A
SHARPENING MID-UPR LVL TROUGH QUICKLY BACK INTO CEN TX OVER THE
WEEKEND...OPENING THE DOOR FOR VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS S TX (AS SEEN IN 80-90% 1000-500MB RH
FIELDS). THE GFS (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES) SHOW A WEAK AND MORE
BROAD UPR TROUGH REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST OR JUST
INLAND...W/ MOISTURE JUST SLIGHTLY DECREASING IN THE NEAR TERM THEN
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE (CURRENTLY
AROUND 70W) MVG INTO S TX AND MEXICO. THE ECMWF ALSO SUPPORTS THE
SECONDARY MOISTURE SURGE...BUT HAS BEEN A BIT FASTER W/ ITS ARRIVAL.

WITH ALL THAT IN MIND...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COMPROMISE GFS SOLN
WHICH STILL SUGGESTS SCT DIURNAL POPS INLAND W/ ISOLD TO SCT MAINLY
MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
THE COASTAL PLAINS AREAS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 77 AND HIGHWAY 16 UNLESS
THE UPR RIDGE TO THE NW BUILDS IN ENOUGH TO PROVIDE MORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS INLAND COS. TOUGH TO GO MORE THAN SCT POPS
NEXT WEEK GIVEN UNCERTAINTY W/ TIMING OF WEAK WAVE AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME...BUT WILL AT LEAST SHOW HIGHER END SCT POPS TO
INDICATE INCREASING RAIN CHCS. IF THE GFS PANS OUT POPS WILL END UP
IN THE LIKELY CAT AT LEAST TUE AND WED W/ HEAVIER RAINFALL AND
HIGHER RAIN CHCS INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE COASTLINE EARLY DURING
THE EVENT.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL WARM SOME FROM RECENT READINGS DURING
THE MIDDLE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. ALSO...SHOULD POINT OUT THAT
ALTHOUGH SCT POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST DAILY...RAINFALL WILL
GENERALLY LAST LESS THAN 2 HOURS AND TOTAL WASHOUTS ARE GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED. IF THE TROPICAL WAVE AROUND MID NEXT WEEK VERIFIES...
THAT COULD CHANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  88  75  90  74  /  20  50  30  50  20
VICTORIA          73  90  73  91  73  /  20  40  30  40  10
LAREDO            76  94  76  95  77  /  40  40  40  40  20
ALICE             73  90  73  92  73  /  20  50  30  50  10
ROCKPORT          77  86  77  89  78  /  30  40  30  40  20
COTULLA           73  91  73  93  73  /  40  40  40  40  20
KINGSVILLE        73  89  73  91  73  /  20  50  30  50  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  86  77  89  78  /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

WC/87...SHORT TERM
MG/88...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
448 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-041000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
448 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION TODAY. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN A TENTH TO
A QUARTER INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SOME OF
THE ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER AND RAIN EFFICIENT STORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND WANE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS MID EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL
DURING THIS TWO DAY PERIOD. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHED SUNDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GEORGE
WEST TO ALICE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JAR/SCC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
507 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008

TXZ239-032300-
WEBB-
507 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING WEBB COUNTY...

AT 507 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF
LAREDO TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAREDO...MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TE