Special Marine Warning 39, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
245 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE
AT 18Z OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. AT FIRST GLANCE...I WAS SUSPICIOUS
THE SIGNAL WAS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE
AND CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED IN THE VICINITY. THE MODELS
INDICATE THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
BRING ANY ORGANIZED PCPN OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THE DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY ARE ALSO GREATER IN THIS AREA.
I WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGHER POPS IN SOUTHWEST NEAREST TO THE SHORT
WAVE. I WILL KEEP SCATTERED PCPN ALL OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN IT IS
TOUGH TO FIND A FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. THE MODELS
HINT AT A WEAK WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT A FOCUS IS TOUGH TO
LOCATE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND FROM
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT CONVECTION. BASED ON THE LACK OF DYNAMICS I
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY ON FRIDAY.

THE BIG FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND
12Z SAT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 18Z-00Z.
THIS SHOULD BE PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE CONVECTION ON SAT. CURRENT
SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES SLGHT RISK FOR AREA. IF WE AVOID THE DEBRIS
CLOUD FROM THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ON SAT. I WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS FOR
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST CYCLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION DAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. SOME DRYING CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
ITS DOMINANCE THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH CAPS 2.5K TO 4K WILL GIVE US A CHC OF TSTMS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOSTLY MVFR CONDS BUT SOME
VFR CONDS POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR MORE FOG AND HAZE TO RESULT
IN MVFR CONDS. THE CONTINUED WARM MOIST AIR MASS WILL FUEL MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CAUSING MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERAL S-SW FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO REACH STRONG
TO SEVERE LIMITS WITH WINDS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS
AND LARGE HAIL.  COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
SECONDARY TROUGHS AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
530 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-270930-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
530 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. THE STORMS MAY HAVE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THEY
COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
ALOFT DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. TYPICALLY THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN WOULD BRING PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED
LARGE HAIL AND A SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM DOWNBURST WINDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KOSARIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
501 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             NORTHWOOD               41.61N 83.48W
06/26/2008  E0.88 INCH       WOOD               OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

OUDEMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
509 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             FINDLAY                 41.04N 83.64W
06/26/2008  E0.75 INCH       HANCOCK            OH   AMATEUR RADIO

0505 PM     HAIL             ATTICA                  41.07N 82.89W
06/26/2008  E0.88 INCH       SENECA             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

OUDEMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
513 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     TSTM WND GST     ATTICA                  41.07N 82.89W
06/26/2008  M61.00 MPH       SENECA             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

OUDEMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
540 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATTICA                  41.07N 82.89W
06/26/2008                   SENECA             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN.

0511 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N GREEN               40.98N 81.49W
06/26/2008  U60.00 MPH       SUMMIT             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN.

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATTICA                  41.07N 82.89W
06/26/2008                   SENECA             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            THREE FOOT DIAMETER TREES DOWN.

&&

OUDEMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
549 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WELLINGTON              41.16N 82.22W
06/26/2008                   LORAIN             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN.

&&

OUDEMAN

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