Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
303 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE
FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON TO PADUCAH KY AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 35MPH. SYNOPTIC FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF
THESE STORMS BUT THEY SHOULD EVENTUALLY BLOSSOM AS THEY MOVE INTO
THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MICHIGAN INDIANA AND
WESTERN OHIO AND THINK THAT DAMAGING WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THIS EVENT TONIGHT
FOLLOWING SUNSET. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRESENT
SITUATION BUT IT SUSPICIOUSLY SHOWS ALL CONVECTION DISSIPATING AFTER
00Z WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. IT HINTS AT SOME NEW CONVECTION OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z BUT ITS HARD TO SAY IF THIS BRIEF BREAK WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.
WILL TRY AND PUT SOME TIMING IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NW OH AND HOLD OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.

MEANWHILE THE NAM DOES SHOW THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION...BUT NOTHING
ELSE AFTERWARD. FEEL THAT THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE BEST SOLUTION
SINCE WE NEVER REALLY LOSE THE INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND I HAVE A
HARD TIME THINKING THAT ALL STORMS WILL DISAPPEAR SUDDENLY AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING
AND SHOULD SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST OF THE OH/PA BORDER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD ACTUALLY DRY OUT WEST OF INTERSTATE 71 TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF A SHOWER
FURTHER EAST. A LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF THE FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TOMORROW MORNING GIVEN INCREASING DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT THIS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL
SITES SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPS DROP OFF QUITE A BIT TOMORROW WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.  THE HIGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.  ALOFT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES.  WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC SETTING WOULD EXPECT FAIR WX THROUGH THE DAY.  GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAKE AFTERNOON/EVENING SCT/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE HOWEVER WL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.  NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC SHWRS/TSTMS WILL COME FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ONTARIO WITH AN UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE MODELS SHOW AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD EXPECT A LINE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THE FRONT DURING THE PERIOD.  UPPER TROF WILL
REMAIN OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC AREA WHICH WILL BRING COOLER AIR AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 18Z CONDITIONS ARE/WERE VFR ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TRENDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL INCLUDE CONTINUING GUSTY WINDS WITH
PEAK GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30KTS. EXPECT ALSO THE CUMULUS
FIELD TO EXPAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. FAVORED
LOCATIONS INCLUDE THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM EAST OF KCLE TO
KERI AND ALSO IN THE NORTHWEST FROM KTOL TO KFDY AND TO THE
CENTRAL LAKESHORE AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO MVFR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
NAM SHORES THE FRONT STALLING IN THE WEST AS A WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THROUGH THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE EAST BEHIND THE WAVE.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FRIDAY EVENING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
LIKELY BRING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SSW WINDS OF ABOUT 10 TO 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT WHEN
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE SHIFTING THE FLOW TO SW OR
WEST. THE NEARSHORE WILL SEE A LITTLE HIGHER WINDS INTO THIS EVENING
SO SCA WILL BE LEFT GOING UNTIL 10 PM.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
OHIO SHOULD PROVIDE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL A NE FLOW
STARTS TO SET UP WED AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH ESTABLISHES
ITSELF NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. EAST TO SE WINDS THU WILL VEER TO SE THEN
S FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE MODELS START TO BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN ON HOW AND WHETHER THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LAKE ERIE SAT SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN A S TO W
WIND SHIFT IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEINS
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...ADAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-019>023-028>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-101745-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-
KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
141 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE MAY BE A THREAT OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES FROM NORTHEASTERN OHIO
INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LEZ142>144-162>164-OHZ003-006>009-017-018-027-101745-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-WYANDOT-
141 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE MAY BE A THREAT OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES FROM NORTHEASTERN OHIO
INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.