Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 132013
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
413 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

OHC123-143-132045-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080613T2045Z/
SANDUSKY OH-OTTAWA OH-
413 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL OTTAWA AND NORTHWESTERN SANDUSKY COUNTIES...

AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LINDSEY...OR ABOUT NEAR ELMORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FREMONT...ROCKY RIDGE AND OAK HARBOR

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4163 8312 4162 8309 4148 8293 4148 8295
      4146 8297 4143 8294 4143 8287 4141 8284
      4127 8340 4145 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 233DEG 20KT 4144 8324

$$

FITZ

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 132046
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
446 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

OHC123-143-132056-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080613T2045Z/
SANDUSKY OH-OTTAWA OH-
446 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL OTTAWA AND
NORTHWESTERN SANDUSKY COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 445 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4163 8312 4162 8309 4148 8293 4148 8295
      4146 8297 4143 8294 4143 8287 4141 8284
      4127 8340 4145 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 233DEG 20KT 4144 8324

$$

FITZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
336 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED NEAR AN ASHTABULA TO
MARION LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING
AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SOUTH OF IT AND MOVE UP OVER IT.
WE THEN WILL HAVE A BETTER DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS INDIANA INTO
MICHIGAN WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OHIO OVERNIGHT. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LOCATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT
COULD HELP TO LOCALLY INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY.

OTHERWISE WATCH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
ECHOES HAVE A CHANCE TO TRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EASTERN AREAS IF THE FRONT CAN SLOW
DOWN...SO CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS EAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT PIECE OF JET ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A COOLER DAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF.  THE GFS HOWEVER IS MORE PESIMISTIC WITH
ANOTHER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE AREA.  ALOFT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK.  THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE ECMWF
SLOWLY ROTATES THE UPPER LOW NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC ALLOWING THE
SURFACE HIGH TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
CLOSER TO THE EASTERN LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  HAVE SIDED WITH
HPC AND AND THE ECMWF AND ALLOWED AT LEAST THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO
TURN PARTLY SUNNY AFTER MID WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH BEST
CHANCES LIKELY NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES AT
17Z WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. COLD FRONT FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN TO KSTL MOVING EAST AND
WILL MOVE TO NEAR KTOL AROUND 06Z AND JUST EAST OF KCLE BY 12Z.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY AS WELL. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE AND
SHOWERS...BECOMING IFR OR LIFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND EXIT THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS MAY LINGER ON
SATURDAY BUT CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SECONDARY
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IO ON MONDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO NW INDIANA HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  BUT AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED TSRA TO POP UP ANY TIME
THIS EVENING.  COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS SCA NOT OUT OF
QUESTION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
MONDAY.  CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
209 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

LEZ061-147>149-167>169-OHZ012>014-021>023-031>033-038-089-PAZ001>003-
141815-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-
ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-HOLMES-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
209 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL MAY BE NEEDED.

LEZ142>146-162>166-OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-036-037-047-141815-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-MARION-MORROW-KNOX-
209 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.