Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
749 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO OHIO ON
TUESDAY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHRA CONTINUE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW OF
THESE COULD CLIP NW PA THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...LOTS OF
DIURNAL CU CONTINUES. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY BY SUNSET WITH
M/CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS A DEG
OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TOMORROW WITH
A RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL SCOOT OFF
TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH 12Z GFS AND NAM HINTING AT LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
CHANCE WORDING IN THE NEW PACKAGE. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE AREA WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE LITTLE DURING
THE PERIOD SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY PERIOD WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE
BUT THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE IN TIME AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND FORCES A WARM FRONT INTO THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL FORCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
TOWARD THE REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH PERIOD. WARM FRONT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERRUNNING SITUATION
WILL DEVELOP INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION TOO MUCH
QPF AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.

GFS MODEL STILL PERSISTENT IN BRINGING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE REGION SO WILL FOLLOW THE LEAD ON THE MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF
ERIE THROUGH 02Z. OTHERWISE REMAINING CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE SETTING SUN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT BELIEVE THAT THE ONLY TAF SITE
THAT MAY HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ASSIST IN THE FOG
GENERATION WILL BE THE YNG AREA.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOOKS AS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN AND WAVES DROPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT LAKE
WILL BE CHOPPY THIS EVENING.  WAVES DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY TOMORROW
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKES.  COULD BE CHOPPY AGAIN
THURSDAY WITH NE FLOW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
523 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

OHZ006-008-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-PAZ002-003-120930-
WOOD-SANDUSKY-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-
SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-
STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
523 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ144-OHZ003-007-009>012-089-PAZ001-120930-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-LUCAS-OTTAWA-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
LAKE-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
523 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP TIDES TODAY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142-143-145>149-162>169-120930-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
523 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ON LAKE ERIE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.