Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 230604
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
203 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

PAC039-049-230630-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-080723T0630Z/
CRAWFORD PA-ERIE PA-
203 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM EDT
FOR EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

AT 202 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR UNION CITY...OR ABOUT 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF MEADVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 26 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NORTH
EAST...SPARTANSBURG AND CORRY

LAT...LON 4163 7963 4163 7983 4150 8001 4151 8052
      4184 8020 4212 7997 4220 7993 4226 7978
      4200 7977 4200 7963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0603Z 264DEG 23KT 4185 7989

$$

MULLEN

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 230624
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
222 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

PAC039-049-230631-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0215.000000T0000Z-080723T0630Z/
CRAWFORD PA-ERIE PA-
222 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA EXPIRES AT 230 AM EDT...

AT 222 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM JUST WEST OF CORRY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. STRONG 
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND PENNY HAIL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE 
THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE OUT OF ERIE COUNTY AFTER 230 AM. 

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CRAWFORD AND ERIE 
COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE 
POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 4163 7963 4163 7983 4150 8001 4151 8052
      4184 8020 4212 7997 4220 7993 4226 7978
      4200 7977 4200 7963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0621Z 264DEG 23KT 4186 7973

$$

MULLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TO NEAR CHICAGO
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION HAS MADE SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTH TODAY WITH LOCAL MESOSCALE PROCESSES THE MAJOR FORCING TODAY
WITH LAKE ENHANCED RAIN THIS MORNING AND SOME LAKE BREEZE INDUCED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS FROM YNG WEST TO NEAR NORWALK WITH MORE CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE LAKE ERIE JUST EAST OF LAKE ST CLAIR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MICHIGAN
SLOWLY ROTATES SE TOWARD THE REGION AND OVER WARM LAKE ERIE...MORE
CONVECTION MAY BE INDUCED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION. WITH LAKE
ERIE WARMED TO 23-25C ALONG WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS EXPECTED ALOFT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. THE NAM
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FEATURE AND MORE MOIST ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST PA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS TODAY AS BOTH LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD.
FOR THE LOCAL AREA THIS MEANS TEMPS AVERAGING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.  BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD WILL
COME DURING THE SAT TO SAT NIGHT PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.  BY LATE SUNDAY THE AREA SHOULD BE
DRY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORKWEEK WITH DRY WEATHER BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK TROUGH NOW MOVING INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUT SHOULD MOVE
AWAY FROM ALL TAF SITES BY 00Z. MEANWHILE NEW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY DRIFT ACROSS THE LAKE AND AFFECT CAK YNG AND
ERI AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE THERE SHOULD ONLY BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL LINGER TOWARD DAYBREAK.
CIGS/VSBYS COULD LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...COULD EVEN DIP TO IFR
WHERE STORMS OCCURRED THIS EVENING.

TOMORROW THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH CLE CAK YNG AND ERI WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE MORNING.
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN THESE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP SINCE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO
HANDLE THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER ALL SITES WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE A FEW
SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RIDGE BUILDS IN TOWARD
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WINDS OF ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD
VEER FROM MAINLY WEST TO MAINLY NORTH TONIGHT LIKELY INCREASING TO
10 TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME WED NIGHT INTO THU
BEFORE BACKING TO MORE OF A WEST DIRECTION LATER THU AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO.  THERE IS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE HIGH SO THE BACKING OF THE WINDS
COULD TAKE PLACE AS EARLY AT THU MORNING OR NOT UNTIL THU NIGHT.  AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATER FRI THE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BACK TO A SSW DIRECTION.

RIGHT NOW THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE SAT EVENING WHICH SHOULD MEAN
A SW TO NW WIND SHIFT.  THE FLOW WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK FOR ABOUT 20 KT WINDS SO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...LEINS
MARINE...ADAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
619 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-231030-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
619 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AS WELL AS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
814 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W CANFIELD            41.03N 80.86W
07/22/2008                   MAHONING           OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BERLIN CENTER FEW TREES DOWN

&&

RANDEL