Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 212224
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
624 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

OHC075-151-169-212300-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-080721T2300Z/
WAYNE OH-STARK OH-HOLMES OH-
624 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HOLMES...WESTERN STARK AND EASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 620 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HILLS AND DALES TO NAVARRE
TO WILMOT...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CANTON TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CANTON TO 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DOVER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MEYERS
LAKE...NORTH CANTON...BEACH CITY...EAST CANTON...LOUISVILLE...EAST
SPARTA AND MAGNOLIA

LAT...LON 4067 8198 4077 8181 4095 8171 4094 8164
      4091 8164 4091 8147 4086 8123 4067 8126
      4064 8129 4065 8146 4063 8162 4062 8165
      4058 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 279DEG 31KT 4085 8142 4074 8150
          4068 8161

$$

ABE

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 212255
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

OHC075-151-169-212305-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-080721T2300Z/
WAYNE OH-STARK OH-HOLMES OH-
655 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HOLMES...WESTERN 
STARK AND EASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 700 
PM EDT...

LAT...LON 4067 8198 4077 8181 4095 8171 4094 8164
      4091 8164 4091 8147 4086 8123 4067 8126
      4064 8129 4065 8146 4063 8162 4062 8165
      4058 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 279DEG 31KT 4078 8107 4067 8116
          4062 8127

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
307 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO ON
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BOTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE
FRONT. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AN
AREA NEAR THE OHIO RIVER HOWEVER NEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...TOUGH CALL ON HOW TO HANDLE THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE TO GO DRY OR WITH VERY LOW POPS
ACROSS NW OH THIS EVENING BUT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY
FROM SAGINAW BAY TO GRAND RAPIDS...WILL BE INCLUDING AT LEAST A 30
POP IN ALL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS NE OH/NW
PA. MAY EVEN GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 71
THIS EVENING BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME.  ALL
GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO SHOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...SREF POPS UNDER 10 PERCENT AFTER 06Z SO I WENT DRY AT ALL
LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL AGAIN TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TUESDAY THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
SHOW A WAVE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY HOWEVER
THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS AS IF ITS BEING CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WITH
SPURIOUS QPF BULLSEYES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NAM LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND I DREW IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG A CANTON TO ERIE PA LINE.
DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN...SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY
ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
FACTOR IN DEWPOINTS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER AND IT SHOULD FEEL
MUCH DIFFERENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO HANG ONTO POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS NW PA/NE OH. THE UPPER LOW APPEARS
AS IF IT WILL DRIFT CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AND WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALOFT...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND DRIFT THROUGH ERIE AND YOUNGSTOWN. AT
THIS POINT IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE A WASH OF A DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT
CERTAINLY WARRANTS A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS POINT. ELSEWHERE I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID WEEK SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WILL BRING CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY RESULTING IN COOLER NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS STILL TRYING TO COME TOGETHER ON THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AT MIDDAY AND THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER INDIANA CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TO THE EAST INTO
WESTERN OH. WITH FAVORABLE 0-6KM DEEP WIND SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS AND
MUCAPES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS, EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
LAKE ERIE SHADOW MAY SPARE THE ERI AREA AS STORMS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR INLAND. DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS MAY ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE
WINDS GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING...BUT WITH HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RECENT
RAIN...EXPECT SOME FOG AND HAZE TO FORM AFTER ABOUT 06Z. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. A SCATTERED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

OUTLOOK...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
GREAT LAKES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY SO CAN NOT RULE OUT A
SHRA OR MAYBE A TS EACH DAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TOWARD FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING SHIFTING
WSW WINDS TO WNW THEN THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD STAY
UNDER 20 KTS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY INCREASE INTO A 2 TO 4
FOOT RANGE ALTHOUGH 3 TO 5 FEET COULD BE POSSIBLE.  WED THROUGH THU
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO LAKE ERIE LEADING TO A
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FLOW.  LIGHT FLOW ON FRIDAY SHOULD TURN TO S
OR SW BY SAT AS THE HIGHS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEINS
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...BC/REL
AVIATION...BC/REL
MARINE...ADAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
542 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-222145-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
542 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A
RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS YET THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND OR LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.