Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 282020
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

OHC085-282100-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-080628T2100Z/
LAKE OH-
419 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR LAKE COUNTY...

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR PAINESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 44 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PERRY...NORTH PERRY AND NORTH MADISON


THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF THREE QUARTER INCH HAIL REPORTED IN 
THE CITY OF WILLOUGHBY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4185 8101 4176 8106 4163 8126 4163 8128
      4162 8129 4156 8138 4157 8146 4158 8148
      4164 8147 4175 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 237DEG 38KT 4171 8113

$$

FITZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
343 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA COUNTIES AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME CLEARING WORKING INTO THE NW. WILL HOWEVER
NEED TO KEEP THE WATCH GOING NW AS PER SPC REQ GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MI EXTENDING BACK INTO NWRN OH.
OTHERWISE WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME MAIN LINE EAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LINE TO BREAK CLOUDINESS
FOR A WHILE BUT THEN OVERNIGHT MORE LIFT WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG
DYNAMICS MOVING IN FROM THE NW WITH THE UPPER LOW. WOULD EXPECT
CLOUDS TO PUSH BACK IN WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT. WILL ALSO NEED TO
KEEP CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL NEED TO BE QUICK WITH THIS GIVEN CURENT WX ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL FOLLOW GFS TIMING. IN SHORT EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCT
TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN IN ITS WAKE A REDEVELOPING UPPER
LOW ON MONDAY. GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...MORE SO DURING THE
DAYTIME HEATING BUT STILL DURING THE NIGHT GIVEN THE COOL AIR
ALOFT. ALSO FLOW OVER THE WARM LAKE WILL BE GOOD FOR AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. TEMPS COOL FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF SHOWING A LITTLE BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  BOTH DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN AIR MASS
CHANGE JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THERE COULD BE SOME
DECENT STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  WITH TEMPS
ALOFT REMAINING FAIRLY COOL BOTH DAYS...THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS.  THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCE
POPS.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRY TO COME BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY SO
WILL NEED MORE CHANCE WORDING.  TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT A TAD BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF SHRA AND STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NW OH. WILL TRY TO
TIME THIS LINE ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER LINE OF
STORMS TO DEVELOP W AND SW OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TOWARD EVENING AND COULD PACK QUITE A PUNCH.
AREA ALREADY UNDER A WATCH AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS A
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PUT SOME GUST TO 45 KNOTS IN TAFS. AS
USUAL EXACT TIMING OF STORMS TOUGH AND WILL NEED ADJUST AS
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WILL TRY TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE PRECIP WITH THAT. ALL SITES WILL GET A
TEMPO FOR SHRA AT END OF TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND THINGS
WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN AND NEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON NW OHIO AND SPREAD EAST AND WILL OCCUR OFF AND ON
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE DURING THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. DRYING OUT MIDWEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.MARINE...
TROUGH/FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING.  SW FLOW WILL
BECOME W AND DIMINISH BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  STORMS AND SHOWERS
LIKELY ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE FLOW WILL RETURN
TO S TO SW MOST OF SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.  THAT
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THERE WILL BE A
PRETTY GOOD PUNCH OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT SO NW
FLOW WILL PICK UP AND WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT FOR MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH MAINLY LIGHT W TO SW FLOW.  ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MORE STORMS
AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1214 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-291615-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
1214 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE LARGEST THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. STORMS WOULD BRING PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALIZED
LARGE HAIL AND A SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM DOWN BURST WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
238 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N CALEDONIA           40.71N 82.97W
06/28/2008                   CRAWFORD           OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

BM