Low Water Advisory 9, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
412 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NOW EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA...PRECIP ALL BUT DONE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES HOWEVER THE NEXT
WAVE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SNEAK INTO MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. PVA
AND LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SITES...I THINK IT WILL BE UNTIL
AT LEAST MID MORNING BEFORE THE WAVE HAS ANY MAJOR EFFECT ON THE
WEATHER ELSEWHERE BUT I WILL MENTION SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT
ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER THIS MORNING
AND AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...I
THINK ALL SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LAKESHORE AND SNOWBELT
COUNTIES ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CANT BE RULED OUT
FROM TOLEDO TO MANSFIELD.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THINGS REALLY GETTING THEIR ACT TOGETHER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WITH STRONG LIFT AND GOOD
925-850MB FLOW COMING OFF THE LAKE. THIS SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF
A FAIRLY PROLONGED LES EVENT AND I WILL ISSUE A LES WARNING WITH THE
MORNING PACKAGE. DEBATING ABOUT WIND DIRECTION...CURRENT OPERATIONAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CUYAHOGA/TRUMBULL COUNTIES IN OK SHAPE AND NOT
IN NEED OF A WARNING AT THIS TIME. LOCALLY RUN MODELS INDICATE A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND SUGGEST BOTH THESE COUNTIES
SHOULD BE INCLUDED. FOR NOW I WILL ISSUE A WARNING FOR CUYAHOGA LAKE
GEAUGA ASHTABULA ERIE AND CRAWFORD AND LEAVE TRUMBULL OUT. THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT TRUMBULL PROBABLY WONT HAVE ISSUES
UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY EVENING SO THERE IS STILL SOME TIME
TO DECIDE ON THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LES SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY TONIGHT WITH ONE DOMINANT BAND COMING
OFF OF LAKE ERIE. WARNING TYPE AMOUNTS FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
SNOWBELT WITH LOCALLY 12 POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND THE USUAL
LOCATIONS IN GEAUGA COUNTY. BY MONDAY THE WINDS WILL BACK A BIT IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS WILL PROBABLY
KEEP ACCUMS DOWN JUST A BIT AS THE BANDS SHIFT AROUND BUT STILL
THINK AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 OR 4-6 INCHES IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP
WITH WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. LES
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A LAKE HURON
CONNECTION DEVELOPING ALTHOUGH WITH NW FLOW ITS A HARD CALL WITH
MULTI BANDS INSTEAD OF ONE LARGE BAND. FIRST GUESS WAS AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE LOOKED AT AGAIN. IN THE TEXT IT ENDS UP BEING WORDED AS
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. FINALLY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH LES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. I
ENDED THE WARNING AT 4PM TUESDAY AS BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SORT OF END TO THE SNOW IN SITE.

BY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVE HOWEVER AS ANOTHER WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DURING
THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY...THEN RE-INTRODUCED POPS PER THE GFS
SOLUTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS ALL
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE UPON
US BY THURSDAY. THIS WAVE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW OCCURRING DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE FAST SPEED IT DOESNT LOOK LIKE A BLOCKBUSTER
IN TERMS OF ACCUMS. HOWEVER...LES LOOKS LIKELY BEHIND THE WAVE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND I CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF LIKELY POPS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO BREAK UP THE LES AND I SLOWLY TAPERED BACK
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST
DAY OF ALL OVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
DRY FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT AND SEE NO REASON TO
GO WITH ANY SORT OF PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN QUITE A BIT AS SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE NE. NOW JUST A WAITING GAME TILL THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE
GETS SET UP. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER AREA LATER TONIGHT IS BEHIND
SCHEDULE. THIS FEATURE IS NOW NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TILL AFTER
DAYBREAK. THUS EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE TAF SITES WEST OF I-71 WILL LIKELY BE VFR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH KTOL AND KFDY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY VFR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUN MORNING AND SHSN ACTIVITY
SHOULD GET GOING BY 15Z. THERE COULD BE SOME IFR VSBYS FROM TIME
TO TIME AT KCLE AND KYNG LATE SUNDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
THOSE SITES TO BE MAINLY MVFR. KERI ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD BE
IFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY THRU 06Z MON. THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL SHSN WITH MVFR
VSBYS. NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME W OR WSW DURING TAF PERIOD.
SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. COULD BE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS MORE SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PULLING OUT RAPIDLY. CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN TO 987 MB (08Z) OVER
QUEBEC. NW FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY TODAY. GRADIENT WILL RELAX A
BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE AND CAN TAKE THE GALE
WARNING DOWN FOR THE WEST THIRD. GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4 PM FOR THE REMAINDER. WIND MAY END UP SLIGHTLY BELOW GALE
FORCE ON THE EAST TWO THIRDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE THE
GALE WARNING AS IS FOR NOW. WATER LEVELS NEAR THE CRITICAL MARK FOR
NAVIGATION THIS MORNING AND BACKING WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE
A MORE FAVORABLE SET UP FOR LOW WATER AND WILL ISSUE A LOW WATER
ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM.

BACKING WIND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND SOME
FUNNELING WIND WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WIND
MAY STILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE EARLY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE. WIND WILL SHIFT NW BY MONDAY MORNING AS NEXT TROUGH
CROSSES THE LAKE AND PERHAPS MORE NORTHERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE BY WEDNESDAY AND WIND WILL BACK
AGAIN TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG WAVES TO
CROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WIND AND WAVES
TO SLIP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY BUT WIND
AND WAVES WILL PICK BACK UP FROM THE NW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR OHZ011>014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-145>149-
     165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEINS
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/LEINS
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KOSARIK