Lake Effect Snow Advisory 3, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 PM EST WED JAN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT THIS WEEKEND...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
WILL CHANGE AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NOTICEABLE MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WHILE A
COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME NUISANCE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH
MOST AREA PICKING UP LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE...NORTHEAST
OF GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUM THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL ACROSS
ERIE COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE...WITH AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

A WELL ALIGNED 260 FLOW WITH A RISING CAP (6K TO NRLY 10K FT) SHOULD
ALLOW THE CURRENT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO INTENSIFY. VIS SAT
IMAGERY...COMBINED WITH NWS DOPPLER AND LOCAL MEDIA RADARS SHOWS A
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BAND JUST OF THE ERIE CO SHORE EXTENDING INTO
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THIS BAND IS PRODUCING TERRIBLE TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY IN THAT PARTICULAR
AREA...AND SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE BAND WILL SETTLE A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AS WE MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.

HAVE USED A CONSENSUS OF LOCALLY RUN MESOSCALE MODELS AT ALB/BUF
AND BGM...ALONG WITH THE 12Z ETA12 RUN...AS GUIDANCE FOR THE
MOVEMENT OF THE BAND. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...THE LOCALLY RUN CLE
MESOSCALE MODEL WAS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE QPF. POPS WILL BE
NEAR 100 FOR THIS AREA...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED USING THE 15Z SREF
(SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST) PACKAGE. AS A RESULT...A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR ERIE CO FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...THE SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL BE
SETTLING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO THE BASE OF A SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY...WITH STRONG JET ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OF
TODAY...REMAINING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ON
THURSDAY WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WHILE THIS WILL MEAN FAIR COLD WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA...MORE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SNOWBELT
EAST OF CLEVELAND.

THE LAKE SNOWS WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FRIDAY...THEN AN OPEN
WAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE
WILL LIMIT BOTH THE POTENTIAL AND AMOUNT OF ANY SNOW RECEIVED.
CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD....WHICH BLENDS
NICELY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND
TO SUPPORT LOW CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. IN TERMS OF LAKE
EFFECT...H8 TEMPS OF -10C AND LK ERIE SFC TEMPS OF +1C WILL NOT
SUPPORT LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION SO WILL NOT CARRY HIGHER POPS IN
THE SNOW BELT AREAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD MARK THE END OF THE RECENT STRETCH OF COLDER
THAN NORMAL WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS AVERAGING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AND CROSS POLAR FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PACIFIC FLOW. THIS PACIFIC FLOW WILL INCLUDE A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THAT WILL HELP TO PUMP NOTICEABLY
MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME DETAILS...

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN LOCKSTEP AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTING A WELL
DEVELOPED RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS OF
ABOUT -8C OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WILL MODIFY TO ABOUT -4C
BY EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO MEAN FINE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE RIDGE WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...THEN AS A
MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH.

THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN THAT SFC TEMPS COULD DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS FROM -FZRA. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.

ON TUESDAY...A PACIFIC BASED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL GENERATE MORE SCATTERED -SHRA...WITH THE COLD
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BECOMING DEEP ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY
SUPPORT A MIX OF -SHRA AND -SHSN BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA.

SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE
AND INTO NORTHERN OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS TROUGH PUSHES
INLAND...WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND BANDS OF LE SNOW OVER LAKE ERIE
WILL PUSH INLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO 2 HOURS OR SO OF IFR CONDTIONS WITH
A QUICK INCH OR SO. AFTER THAT SNOW WILL TAPER TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
OVERALL EXPECT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF NE OH WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT...RIDGING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE...WHICH
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A RETURN
TO DRY VFR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING...WILL BE DROPPING THE FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCES OF THE GLF AND NSH...LEAVING ONLY THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NEARSHORE ZONES UNDER SCAS INTO THIS EVENING.
THOSE WILL BE LEFT INTACT UNTIL 9 PM...MAINLY TO GIVE WAVES A CHANCE
TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW 4 FEET.

BEYOND THAT...DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REACH GALE WARNING
CRITERIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT
SAID...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL
NEARSHORES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED EASTWARD IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIODS AS
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH. QUIETER CONDITIONS
WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND LAKE ERIE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001-
     002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...RANDEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 PM EST WED JAN 23 2008

PAZ001-002-242100-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
353 PM EST WED JAN 23 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
12 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY

LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ011>014-089-PAZ003-242100-
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
CRAWFORD PA-
353 PM EST WED JAN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ003-006>010-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-242100-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-
MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-
WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
353 PM EST WED JAN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-242100-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
353 PM EST WED JAN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.