Severe Thunderstorm Warning 305, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA/ALABAMA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH RADAR IMAGERY EVEN SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES WORKING
THERE WAY INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES. MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE AS THE AREA
BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A 100+ KT H25 JET. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING...RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING TO BE
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WHERE BETTER FORCING WILL BE PRESENT AND WHERE
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS YET TO BE WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...BUT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 100+ KT H25 JET.
THE BIG QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUD COVER TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE THE SUNSHINE WILL
HAVE A BIT MORE TIME TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH END CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN WILL STALL AND MEANDER CLOSE TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WILL ENSURE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS...IN THE 60S AT
MANY LOCATIONS.

DESPITE A DRIER AIRMASS...THE PRESENCE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...
MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS APPEAR DRIEST THAT DAY...BUT A COUPLE OF DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP.

TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WEST OF THE REGION...PULLING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH IN THE THE REGION. THEN...THE LOW PRESSURE
MAY TRACK OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THUS...SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POPS ARE JUSTIFIED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS SCENARIO...CAPPED POPS AT CHANCE...BUT HIGHER POPS
MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

AS THE LOW EXITS THE COAST BY THURSDAY...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD
PUSH BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT...AND GREAT LAKES HIGH
PRESSURE MAY EXPAND SOUTH WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF
CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON HEATING
QUICKLY DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT PULSE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT THE SAV TERMINAL FROM 19Z TO
23Z. PULSE CONVECTION APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT THE CHARLESTON
TERMINAL AT LEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON
MENTION OF VCTS THROUGH 22Z.

AT THE SAV TERMINAL...EXPECT THAT INITIAL CONVECTION WILL END
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CB ALONG WITH
VCSH FROM 02Z THROUGH 08Z AND LEFT TSRA MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW.

AT THE CHS TERMINAL...BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING AND AN ATMOSPHERE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS WORKED OVER FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
TSRA FROM 00Z THROUGH 04Z. THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER 04Z...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION CB THROUGH 08Z.

EXPECT A BREAK IN ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM AROUND
08Z THROUGH 12Z AT THE CHS TERMINAL AND FROM 08Z THROUGH 16Z AT
THE SAV TERMINAL. AFTER THESE TIMES...MAY SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING TSRA AT THE SAV TERMINAL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT THE SAV TERMINAL. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT
A BIT OF A SURGE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL ANTICIPATE WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CHANGEABLE WIND
DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM THE
SEA BREEZE DURING EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND FROM THE LAND
BREEZE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE WATERS...S/SW WINDS MAY INCREASE...AND SEAS MAY BEGIN TO
BUILD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD
AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ043>045-049-
     050.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

JRJ/SPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042-047-048-051-081000-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL JASPER-
415 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARDS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO FAVOR EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...AS WELL AS
TORRENTIAL...POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL
NEWS SOURCE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CHS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INTENSE
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ALL STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ043>045-049-050-081000-
INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-
415 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND PEAK DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HAZARDS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO FAVOR EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...AS WELL AS
TORRENTIAL...POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL
NEWS SOURCE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CHS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INTENSE
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ALL STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-081000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
415 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 KNOTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
311 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     HAIL             2 NNE DAISY             32.18N 81.82W
08/07/2008  E0.75 INCH       EVANS              GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
328 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             EDEN                    32.17N 81.39W
08/07/2008  E0.88 INCH       EFFINGHAM          GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JHP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RICEBORO                31.74N 81.43W
08/07/2008                   LIBERTY            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION US 17 AND
            E.B. COOPER HIGHWAY.

&&

JHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
427 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELLMAN BLUFF          31.57N 81.32W
08/07/2008                   MCINTOSH           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN BY WARNING
            POINT. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JHP