Severe Thunderstorm Warning 252, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
553 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
BY SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FRIDAY EVENING...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAD PUSHED INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND WAS SETTLING INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES. OUTSIDE OF THIS COMPLEX...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG MYRIAD BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
EVENING TRENDS.

PWATS 2 TO 2.3 INCHES AND LINGERING SBCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG
SUGGEST THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED DAMAGING WET
MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL INTO HIS EVENING. ALSO...
HIGH PWATS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION...COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WANE LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...BECAUSE A SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT/ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL INTO THE NIGHT. TAPERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE S/E LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...12Z MODEL SOUNDINGS HINTED AT
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT STRATUS AND/OR
FOG...ESPECIALLY IF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. CONTINUED THE ONGOING MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ALL AREAS
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA...12Z MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LATER DRYING. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
TRENDS TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE DRYING...LATER SHIFTS MAY OPT TO
FURTHER TRIM SATURDAY POPS.

ALONG THE COAST...ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S. INLAND...DRIER AIR MAY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE S OF THE CWFA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX BUILDING IN FOR SUN. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DRY WX FOR SAT NIGHT THE WRF/GFS/SREF ALL
INDICATE THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ALONG THE SNAKING STALLED FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...BUT THE
LOW LOOKS TO BECOME TO STRETCHED OUT BY MON AND RAPIDLY SHIFT OFF TO
THE NE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THUS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES
FOR THE CHS CWFA.

DRIER AIR AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUN
NIGHT BUT THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK W MON WHILE A DIGGING
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL
USHER ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS MON INTO TUE. WITH ANOTHER PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND CAROLINAS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
RETURNING AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH... THE
PROSPECTS FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS SO HAVE ADDED 40 POPS FOR
MON. AS THE FRONT DRIFTS S...SO WILL THE BETTER CHCS FOR PRECIP. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH THE CWFA TUE...THEN SETTLE S OF THE CWFA
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5-2.0 INCHES/
WILL REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BETTER SFC
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE STALLED FRONT WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THEN TRENDING LOWER GOING N. BY
WED-THU...THE ONLY FORCING N OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER WILL BE THE
SEABREEZE AND SPORADIC RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES SO HAVE
ELIMINATED NIGHTTIME POPS FOR NRN AREAS MIDWEEK WHILE KEEPING 20/30
POPS FOR SRN AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. AWAY FROM THE COAST...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER
90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY UNTIL 00Z. BRIEF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG/SHIFTING
WINDS. EXPECT AMENDMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT AROUND KSAV.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 06Z.
IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. MAY SEE OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION
RETURN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...3-5 FT SEAS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN 11-12
SECOND PERIOD SWELL EMANATING FROM HURRICANE BERTHA.

CONVECTION WILL GREATLY ALTER WIND FIELDS INTO TONIGHT...AND WIND
DIRECTION FORECASTS WILL REMAIN CHALLENGING. OTHERWISE...FROM A
SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...SW WINDS MAY SURGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. THEN...IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FROPA WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE N THEN NE LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...AND COULD SURGE TO AS HIGH AS 15-20 KNOTS FOR A
TIME SATURDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
BUT THE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL WAVES MAY BE GENERATED FROM THIS
SHORT-LIVED LOW AS IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE NE MON
INTO TUE...BUT AM KEEPING CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS TUE AND SETTLE S OF THE
CHS MARINE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...AT
LEAST ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
AGAIN POSSIBLY CAUSE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS FOR THE CHS COASTAL WATERS.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AM NOT BITING
OFF ON ANY ONE IDEA AND WILL MAINTAIN WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...3 FT 10-13 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS PRODUCED BY
HURRICANE BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BEACHES THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. PERIODS AS HIGH AS 14 SECONDS COULD EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE SLOWS.
THIS SWELL WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
SATURDAY...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES SUNDAY WITHIN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

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