Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
232 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN PUSH TOWARD THE COAST
MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS E OF THE APPALACHIANS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY...LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES AND
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WILL TREND
POPS FROM 50S EARLY TO 30S/40S LATE. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE.

TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 70 MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MON AS THE AREA
REMAINS ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MOST
LOCALES AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES ALOFT THAT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MOVING
THROUGH FINALLY LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AS IT
DOES SO...THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES WILL
FINALLY LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR NOT
ONLY A DECREASE IN BOTH THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...BUT
ALSO FOR HOTTER TEMPS DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE DONE WITH
BY SUNSET. BUT WITH THE RIGHT READ QUAD OF THE 55-65 KT UPPER LEVEL
JET...A 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET...A SHORT WAVE ALOFT AND THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WE DO NEED TO MAINTAIN SMALL POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM SOME UPPER 60S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUIETER DAY THAN LATELY REGARDING ANY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE
NEARBY ATLC AND DISSIPATES. WITH BOTH WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPS...SINKING MOTION WITH THE LEFT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER
JET...LIMITED MOISTURE /PWATS UNDER 1.25 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS/
AND WEAK INSTABILITY...RAIN CHANCES LOOK NO MORE THAN 20 PERCENT.
BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR THE
COAST...BUT WITH OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW IT WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH
MUCH FURTHER INLAND THAN THE US-17 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTN/EVENING.
IT IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THAT WE WILL CONSIDER SMALL POPS. DEW
POINTS WILL MIX DOWN ON TUESDAY WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW...AND RH
LEVELS INLAND COULD FALL TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND INCREASING 1000-850 THICKNESS...TEMPS WILL CLIMB
INTO AT LEAST THE MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL BE
CLOSE TO 90 AS THE SEA BREEZE DOES NOT FORM UNTIL EARLY OR MID AFTN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WE SEE ATLC HIGH PRES OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH SE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WHILE
THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY THAN ON TUESDAY...MAIN FORCING
IS A RESULT OF THE SEA BREEZE...AND MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
WITH PWATS 1.5-1.75 INCHES. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN NO MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WHICH WOULD BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH 1000-850
THICKNESS RESULTS IN TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAT INDICES 100 OR HIGHER.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...A RETURN OF GREATER MOISTURE AND PERHAPS WEAK
SHORT WAVES ALOFT WILL MEAN A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP AND
MAYBE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER. HOWEVER...HIGHER DEW POINTS AS A
RESULT WOULD MEAN HEAT INDICES OF 100 OR GREATER ARE STILL LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CONTINUATION OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH MANY BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA INCLUDING THE
SEA BREEZE...SOME COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO STAY WEST OF THE TERMINALS BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AS RADAR
TRENDS BECOME MORE EVIDENT AND AMEND AS NEEDED.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT LOOKS MINIMAL AS A SIMILAR REGIME OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS PERSISTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SHRA/TSRA MONDAY...THEN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...S/SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS
AHEAD OF AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE
2-4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM OUT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS PERSISTED IN
AND NEAR THE AREA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH E AND
SE MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A 20-25 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE
TYPICAL S-SW NOCTURNAL SURGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
REACH NEAR 20 KT OR EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER OVER THE ATLC...AND CLOSE
TO 15 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TOWARD 4 OR 5
FT...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY SCA
CRITERIA.

ON TUESDAY THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE MARINE AREA...AND LOOKS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY.
OFFSHORE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN IN THE
AFTN/EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE...BUT NO MORE THAN 10 OR 15 KT BY
LATE IN THE DAY.

ATLC HIGH PRES WILL THEN EXTEND W ACROSS N FL AND S GA THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL SWLY SYNOPTIC
FLOW...WITH VEERING WINDS AT NIGHT/MORNING AND BACKING WINDS DURING
AFTN/EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CAPPED AT 15 KT AND SEAS AT 3 OR 4
FT...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONDITIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS...AND
WITH SUBTLE SURGES AT NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

RJB/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
332 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-231000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
332 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN GEORGIA
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE MAIN HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF QUARTER SIZE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST UNTIL 8 PM.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE COMBINATION OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES...WORKING WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MAY LEAD TO
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS
FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHOULD THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BE SLOWER TO MOVE
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY...THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RJB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
450 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

GAZ101-118-SCZ047-222115-
EFFINGHAM-INLAND CHATHAM-INLAND JASPER-
450 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EFFINGHAM COUNTY...CHATHAM COUNTY
AND JASPER COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 450 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1/2 INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLOOMINGDALE...OR
ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH OF RICHMOND HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 21 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND PURYSBURGH...BLOOMINGDALE...EBENEZER...EDEN...
MEINHARD...MELDRIM...MONTEITH...POOLER...PORT WENTWORTH...RINCON...
STILLWELL AND SAVANNAH AIRPORT WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 515 PM EDT.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
457 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

GAZ114-137-138-222130-
INLAND LIBERTY-LONG-TATTNALL-
457 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LONG COUNTY...TATTNALL COUNTY AND
LIBERTY COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 457 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WEFANIE...OR
ABOUT OVER LUDOWICI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND ALLENHURST...DONALD...FLEMINGTON...FORT
STEWART...GUM BRANCH...HINESVILLE...LUDOWICI...MCINTOSH...
WALTHOURVILLE AND MIDWAY WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 530 PM EDT.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
459 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

SCZ044-045-050-222130-
BERKELEY-CHARLESTON-DORCHESTER-
459 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BERKELEY COUNTY...DORCHESTER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 453 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1/2 INCH
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR
CHICORA...OR ABOUT OVER MONCKS CORNER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND BONNEAU...BONNEAU BEACH...COLLEGE PARK...CROSS...
DORCHESTER...EADYTOWN...GIVHANS...HARLEYVILLE...JAMESTOWN...
JEDBURG...KNIGHTSVILLE...MONCKS CORNER...PINOPOLIS...REEVESVILLE...
RIDGEVILLE...SAINT GEORGE...SAINT STEPHEN...SANGAREE AND SUMMERVILLE
WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 530 PM EDT.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY
FLOOD DITCHES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. AVOID FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND DO NOT
DRIVE INTO PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED
TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
514 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

SCZ043-222145-
INLAND COLLETON-
514 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COLLETON COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM
EDT...

AT 513 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1/2 INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILLIAMS...OR
ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALTERBORO...MOVING EAST AT 27 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND ASHTON...CANADYS...COLLETON...LODGE...PADGETTS...
ROUND O...RUFFIN...SMOAKS...WALTERBORO AND WILLIAMS WILL BE IMPACTED
THROUGH 545 PM EDT.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN
EMERGENCY.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED
TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES.