Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
312 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR DISSIPATE BY LATE TUESDAY. A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A FAIRLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER
THE AREA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN AND EVEN TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
THUS...CONTINUED WITH 50-70 POPS THIS EVE...HIGHEST ACROSS SC...
DIMINISHING TO 20-30 POPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
MEANDERING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE SUN LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT AS EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE THOSE
CONCERNS...BUT WITH MID-LEVEL JETTING OF 25-30 KT AND A SEA
BREEZE...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALSO POINTS TO MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT AND WARRANTS LIKELY POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL PULL INTO THE ATLC EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIP ENDING BY MIDNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH CLEARING FOR A LITTLE FOG TO FORM GIVEN RAIN FROM
EARLIER...BUT NOT YET ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE WITH THE FORECAST.
MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM NRN FL AND THE GULF OF
MEX ON MONDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR HIGHER IN MANY
AREAS...SO HEAVY RAINS SEEM A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOLDING MOST TEMPS DOWN IN
THE 80S...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD SEEM TO BE A
HIGHER PROBABILITY THAN STRONG OR SEVERE TSTMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE 25 KT OR GREATER BY LATE IN THE DAY AND THE
RRQ OF A 60-70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES IN BETWEEN 21-24Z. THIS
ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN -5.5 AND -6.0 DEGREES CELSIUS SUGGEST THERE IS AT LEAST A
SMALL RISK OF STRONGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER IS
LESS THAN PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE FROM THE NW
TO MOVE THROUGH BY AFTN...RESULTING IN NVA IN ITS WAKE THE REST OF
THE DAY. THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO BECOME
DIFFUSE OR PUSHES INTO THE ATLC WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE FOUND. WHILE MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
THAN MONDAY...1.4-1.8 INCHES AREAWIDE...THERE IS STILL SOME CAPE
NEAR THE COAST OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REACHES 30
KT. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAINS
GOOD AT 30 KT OR SO. THUS IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO GET GOING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...A FEW ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE TSTMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN RECENT DAYS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...HEIGHTS ALOFT CLIMB AS PERSISTENT
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE E FINALLY LIFTS OUT AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS. MEANWHILE...LEE SIDE TROF WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF
INLAND...WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
ATLC RIDGE. THE END RESULT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WHILE HEAT INDICES COULD REACH
100-105 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
KCHS AIRPORT ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE
TSTM N OF KCHS HAS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TERM
SWITCHING WINDS TO NLY...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY BE TEMPORARY. EXPECT
THE SH/TSTM ACTIVITY TO EXPAND AND LAST THROUGH SUNSET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION AND WILL AMEND
IF/WHEN NECESSARY.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY CREEP IN TO BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE SIMILAR REGIME AS
LAST NIGHT AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPED. WILL
REEVALUATE THIS AT LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

SHOULD EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
EXPECT IT TO BEGIN AFTER 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GENERALLY VFR WEATHER THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE OF S/SW WINDS
AT LEAST 15-20 KNOTS...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS AT LEAST 2-4 FT. A FEW
HOURS OF SCA WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS...MAINLY THIS EVENING.

MODERATE S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUN WITH BASICALLY THE SAME
SETUP AS TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE EFFECTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH
GENERALLY A SWLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. OVERALL WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE S OR SSW DURING
EACH AFTN/EVENING...THEN VEER TO MORE SW OR WSW AT NIGHT AND IN
THE EARLY MORNING.

WHILE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS...THERE MAY BE ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION. A 20-25 KT LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. IF SO...SEAS MAY BUILD UP
TO 5 FT ACROSS SOME WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS
AND THE OUTER GA WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

RJB/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
510 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-221000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
510 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN FAVOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. ALSO...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. FURTHER...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A SERIES OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES...IN COMBINATION WITH THE DAILY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MAY LEAD
TO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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