Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Charleston, SC

000 
WWUS52 KCHS 201509
SVSCHS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1108 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

SCC013-201518-
/O.CAN.KCHS.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-080620T1530Z/
BEAUFORT SC-
1108 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BEAUFORT COUNTY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND
POWER LINES...PLEASE CONTACT THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024 OR EMAIL YOUR REPORTS TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 3256 8052 3268 8040 3255 8033 3254 8035
      3255 8037 3253 8039 3253 8043 3252 8046
      3252 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1508Z 274DEG 13KT 3254 8042

$$

SCC019-029-201530-
/O.CON.KCHS.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-080620T1530Z/
COLLETON SC-CHARLESTON SC-
1108 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM EDT
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CHARLESTON AND SOUTHEASTERN COLLETON
COUNTIES...

AT 1103 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BENNETTS POINT...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF EDISTO
BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER IN BENNETTS POINT 
REPORTED PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL. HOWEVER...THE MOST INTENSE PART OF 
THE STORM WAS SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BENNETTS 
POINT AND ASHE ISLAND.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND
POWER LINES...PLEASE CONTACT THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024 OR EMAIL YOUR REPORTS TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 3256 8052 3268 8040 3255 8033 3254 8035
      3255 8037 3253 8039 3253 8043 3252 8046
      3252 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1508Z 274DEG 13KT 3254 8042

$$

33

000 
WWUS52 KCHS 201526
SVSCHS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1127 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

SCC019-029-201537-
/O.EXP.KCHS.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-080620T1530Z/
COLLETON SC-CHARLESTON SC-
1127 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CHARLESTON AND SOUTHEASTERN COLLETON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 AM
EDT...

AT 1123 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH
PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THUS THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND
POWER LINES...PLEASE CONTACT THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024 OR EMAIL YOUR REPORTS TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV.

LAT...LON 3256 8052 3268 8040 3255 8033 3254 8035
      3255 8037 3253 8039 3253 8043 3252 8046
      3252 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 274DEG 13KT 3253 8034

$$

33

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
728 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRES WILL MEANDER OVER THE SE U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF WEAKENING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS CHS COUNTY AND OVER COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...A PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY.

SCENARIO TODAY APPEARS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THURSDAY...WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH AND A PROGRESSIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. BY EARLY AFTERNOON... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN FIRE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE... WHICH WILL ADVANCE INLAND
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING SBCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -6. GIVEN EXPECTED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 9.5-10.5
KFT...-10C TO -30C CAPES 400-800 J/KG AND DOWNBURST CAPES AS HIGH
AS 1500 J/KG...ANY PULSE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER...AS WAS THE CASE
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH
BACK TOWARD THE COAST DUE TO THE W/NW STEERING FLOW ALOFT. THE
RESULTING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL STORM INFLOW/ HELICITY...ACCOMPANIED
BY 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 30-40 KNOTS...MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...MORE PERSISTENT DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND
EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.

A COUPLE OF PARAMETERS DIFFER FROM THURSDAY AND MAY RESULT IN FEWER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPECIFICALLY...0Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT 500 MB TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO...A
THE MARKED DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WHICH SEPARATED DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S/50S WEST TO THE 60S/70S EAST MAY BE LOCATED SLIGHTLY FARTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING ONLY THE SEA BREEZE AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW TO INITIATE CONVECTION.

WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...0Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT LINGERING INSTABILITY...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THUS...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS ONE DEEP LONGWAVE TROF MOVES OFFSHORE SAT MRNG...ANOTHER LONGWAVE
TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS AXIS SWINGING
THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEYS. UNDER THE TROF NEAR
THE SFC...A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FL
PANHANDLE WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT OVER S GA
SAT AND SHIFT NEWD THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL THEN BRING THE FNTL BNDRY
N...SO CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE
PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE. WHILE THE DEEP UPPER TROF WILL STILL REMAIN
W OF THE CWFA SAT...PLENTY OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THAT WILL
HELP TRIGGER SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THE EXPECTED DIURNAL SEABREEZE. AM NOT QUITE CONFIDENT TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH/MID CHC POPS FOR SAT. WITH THE MAIN TROF APPROACHING
AND NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SUN...
WILL KEEP THE MID/HIGH CHC POPS GOING THROUGH SUN. ALONG WITH THE
COVERAGE QUESTIONS...THERE IS THE QUESTION OF STORM STRENGTH AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX. WITH THE NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES IN PLACE...THE
UPPER SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE
INGREDIENTS ARE THERE TO AT LEAST HAVE ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS. LOW TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO REMAIN STEEP AND LOW LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH MAY BE NEAR ENOUGH TO ALSO BE A PLAYER. SPC
SWODY2 CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA UNDER A SEE TEXT...BUT IS RESERVING
THE RIGHT TO UPGRADE LATER. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WX IN THE HWO.

ONCE THIS STRONG TROF AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT...ANOTHER DEEP
LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES MON INTO
MON NIGHT...KEEPING AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS GOING FOR MON INTO MON
NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNALS OF VARYING STRENGTH OF THIS LAST TROUGH
AMONG THE LONGER RANGE MODELS...SO AM HESITANT TO RAISE POPS ATTM.

ONCE THIS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE...THEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MAKING THE ONLY FEATURE
FOR THE PROMOTION OF SHWRS/TSTMS THROUGH MIDWEEK THE DIURNAL
SEABREEZE. THUS...HAVE TUNED POPS AS SUCH BY FOCUSING POPS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS EACH DAY.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL EACH DAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THEN...THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS
REMAINS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL THIS
MORNING...DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASSS.
HOWEVER...MOST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING... AS THE SCENARIO APPEARS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE E/SE. 12Z TAFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE VCTS AT BOTH SITES DURING THE 16-23Z TIME FRAME. EITHER
SITE COULD BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS...THUS EXPECT
AMENDMENTS TODAY AS DICTATED BY NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
THEN...THE 12Z FORECAST INDICATES A TYPICAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...00Z-06Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT
CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT...AND LATER FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SAT THROUGH SUN. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
THEN...SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. A DIURNAL SURGE MAY PUSH S WINDS INTO THE 15-20 KT
RANGE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. NONE LOOK IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH ATTM TO BRING WINDS AND/OR
WAVES TO SCA LEVELS...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A SURGE LATE SAT
THROUGH SAT EVE AS A LOW PRES CENTER MOVES NE AND BRINGS A FRONT
INTO THE WATERS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS MAY OCNLY
REACH 20 KT. HOWEVER...THE PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW THAT
LEVEL SO WILL CAP SPEEDS AT 15-20KT. THERE ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY PROLONGED ONSHORE FETCHES TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO ANY GREAT
DEGREE SO WILL CAP SEAS AT 5 FT.

THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH COMPLETELY AWAY
FROM THE WATERS BY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALLOWING HIGH
PRES TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS. BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THIS CHANGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
422 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-211000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
422 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE SEA BREEZE ADVANCES INLAND...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...A FEW
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH AND
LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2
PM AND 9 PM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A SERIES OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES...IN COMBINATION WITH THE DAILY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MAY LEAD TO
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
958 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             KELLER                  31.84N 81.25W
06/19/2008  E0.75 INCH       BRYAN              GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

REB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1006 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

SCZ043-048>050-201430-
BEAUFORT-CHARLESTON-COASTAL COLLETON-INLAND COLLETON-
1006 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COLLETON COUNTY...CHARLESTON
COUNTY AND BEAUFORT COUNTY THROUGH 1030 AM EDT...

AT 1004 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1/2 INCH HAIL...AND STRONG
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DALE...OR ABOUT 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF BEAUFORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND DALE AND GREEN POND WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 1030
AM EDT.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED
TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

33