Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE ARE
COMBINING TO CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM COASTAL GA UP ALONG I-95 INTO SC. SOME OF
THE STORMS HAVE EVEN BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS DUE TO IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND UNUSUALLY COOL TEMPS ALOFT/LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO INSOLATION LOSS. WE COULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN LATE...ESPECIALLY
IF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER
60S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LINGERING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN CREATE
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRI...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGHS FRI WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 90 DEGREES MOST LOCALES WITH LOWS FRI NIGHT AROUND 70 MOST
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...WITH NUMEROUS AREAS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL THUS INCREASE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...WHILE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS INLAND. HAVE
MAINTAINED A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEABREEZE-INDUCED
CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE
THUS INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT FOR MAINLY THE SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR MID WEEK. REDUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO JUST ALONG
THE SEABREEZE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND KEPT CONDITIONS RAIN FREE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND...WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMS OUTSIDE OF
ANY ISO SH/TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE AND FOG LATE TONIGHT. ALREADY
AMENDED THE KSAV TAF FOR THE TSTM WHICH DEVELOPED NEARBY...AND IS
PUSHING S AND E OF THE TERM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE AMENDMENTS. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO RE-DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI THROUGH SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT. S/SE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...REMAINING MOSTLY AOB 15
KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOB 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS DIRECTIONS
WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

RJB/WMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-201000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
409 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM IN
COMBINATION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
309 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     HAIL             YEMASSEE                32.69N 80.85W
06/19/2008  E0.88 INCH       HAMPTON            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN
            YEMASSEE SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

REB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
351 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             LEVY                    32.20N 81.03W
06/19/2008  E1.00 INCH       JASPER             SC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN LEVY.

&&

REB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             SAVANNAH                32.05N 81.08W
06/19/2008  E0.50 INCH       CHATHAM            GA   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPROTED NEAR PRESIDENTS STREET AND
            PENNSYLVANIA STREET.

0320 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAVANNAH                32.05N 81.08W
06/19/2008  E50.00 MPH       CHATHAM            GA   PUBLIC

0323 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAVANNAH                32.05N 81.08W
06/19/2008                   CHATHAM            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES WERE REPORTED DOWN ON MLK BOULEVARD BY THE
            SAVANNAH DISPATCH.

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAVANNAH                32.05N 81.08W
06/19/2008                   CHATHAM            GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED POWERLINES DOWN IN SAVANNAH.

&&

REB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAVANNAH                32.05N 81.08W
06/19/2008                   CHATHAM            GA   PUBLIC

            TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN IN BACKYARD AND BROKE A HOUSE
            WINDOW ON QUEENSBURY STREET IN SAVANNAH. LARGE BRANCHES
            WERE ALSO REPORTED DOWN.

&&

REB

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