Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1035 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...LINGER NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THEN LIFT BACK
NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE
SATURDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 3 AM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE OVER VA WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST AND OFFSHORE LATER
TODAY AS ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THROUGH NC AND BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS EVENING.

INCREASED POPS THROUGH EARLY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WILL MAINTAIN THE DRIER PATTERN FOR WED AS ADVERTISED BY THE
WRF...WITH THE FRONT S AND E OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT AROUND ACROSS SE GA TO WARRANT 20
POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MEAN RIDGING ALOFT TO OUR
W AND THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA OR JUST TO THE E. A
COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO SHAPING UP DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO OR JUST S OF THE CWFA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THEN LIFTING BACK N LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH PWATS DOWN UNDER AN INCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE
REGION...FIRST FROM THE NE GULF FRIDAY...THEN FROM THE NW ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES IN FROM THE N THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS PWATS CLIMB TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WE LOOK TOWARD A FAIRLY WET END OF THE WEEK...AND
CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS SEEM NECESSARY. DRIER AND NOTICEABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY STAY IN THE 70S MANY AREAS WHILE NIGHT
TIME LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 50S.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A CUTOFF MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR NE OF THE
BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY EVEN A SURFACE LOW
ATTEMPTING TO FORM IN RESPONSE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA.
HOWEVER...OUR FORECAST AREA DOES STAY ON THE DRIER W SIDE OF ANY
SUCH SYSTEM...EVEN IF IT DOES INDEED FORM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD THE TERMS THIS EVE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE CHS TERM FROM AROUND 01Z THROUGH
AROUND 10Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS OF A CHANCE OF THE ACTIVITY
REACHING THE SAV TERM AND THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF ANY SH/TSTMS
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR IMPACTS AT KSAV
LOOK TO BE A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 06Z.

GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVE. HOWEVER...LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT
KSAV OVERNIGHT AS SFC WINDS DROP TO AROUND 7 KT AND 2K FT WINDS
INCREASE TO NEARLY 40 KT...THUS INCLUDED MENTION FROM 03-10Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR WEATHER LIKELY DURING THAT
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
GA WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT S THROUGH THE NIGHT...BEFORE
LIFTING BACK N THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS HAPPENING IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE...SO WIND SHIFT FROM W-NW BEHIND
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND TO THE NE AND EVENTUALLY SE AND S
AGAIN AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK N IS PROBLEMATIC. THANKFULLY...WINDS
WIND GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS DURING THIS TIME...WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE IN BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH 1020-1025 MB HIGH TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IF THIS PATTERN INDEED DOES TAKE SHAPE...THEN WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG PINCHED GRADIENT
WOULD DEVELOP IN SUCH AS SITUATION. THUS...SCA/S SEEM POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ087-
     088-099>101-114>119.
SC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>051.
MARINE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ330-
     350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

JRL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-SCZ040-042>045-047>051-211000-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-ALLENDALE-
HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-
COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GAZ137>141-211000-
LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AMZ330-350-352-354-211000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 331 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AMZ374-211000-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1037 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
945 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

GAZ087-088-SCZ040-210215-
ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN-
945 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT JENKINS
COUNTY...SCREVEN COUNTY AND ALLENDALE COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

AT 942 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
25 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILLETT TO 21 MILES WEST OF HERNDON...OR ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AUGUSTA TO 17 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SWAINSBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE
AREA.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED
TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
948 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

SCZ043>045-210215-
BERKELEY-DORCHESTER-INLAND COLLETON-
948 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BERKELEY COUNTY...DORCHESTER
COUNTY AND COLLETON COUNTY THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

AT 946 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1/2 INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNT ZION...OR
ABOUT OVER SAINT GEORGE...MOVING EAST AT 47 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND DORCHESTER...HARLEYVILLE...JEDBURG...
REEVESVILLE...RIDGEVILLE AND SAINT GEORGE WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH
1015 PM EDT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES SUDDENLY...SOMETIMES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. BE ALERT
FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1058 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             2 S CAINHOY             32.90N 79.83W
05/20/2008  E1.75 INCH       CHARLESTON         SC   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN DUNES WEST SUBDIVISION LASTED 5
            MINUTES.

&&