Freeze Warning 3, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR TODAY...THE DEEP/STRONG UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
MOVE NNE OVER THE NE U.S. THE SFC RIDGE CENTER WILL STILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION TODAY...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY KEEPING WINDS LESS BREEZY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AS MID/UPPER HTS/TEMPS RISE...BUT STILL PRETTY
COOL...ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS
TODAY...IT WILL HELP TO MAKE IT FEEL NOT AS COOL AS YESTERDAY.
COULD SEE SOME SCATTER CU BY AFTERNOON DUE TO PROXIMITY OF COLD
UPPER TROF...BUT STILL A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP UPPER TROF FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE NE U.S. BY FRIDAY.
WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS SFC
RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS/HTS
ABOVE THE SFC WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...THE POSITION OF
THE SFC RIDGE ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IDEAL FOR GOOD
RATIONAL COOLING. HAVE CONTINUED LOWER TO MID 30S FOR LOWS WELL
INLAND WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FROST MOST AREAS...EXCEPT WITHIN 5-10
MILES OF THE COAST. COULD HAVE SOME AREAS NEAR FREEZING. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT...AGAIN VERY COOL...BUT NOT EXPECTING
FREEZING TEMPS. HOWEVER...PATCHY TO SCATTERED FROST AGAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY WEST OF I-95. MOSTLY SUNNY AGAIN FRIDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DROPPING AN UPPER SHORT WAVE INTO THE
NE GULF BY EARLY SATURDAY...THEN CLOSING OFF IT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THIS SOLUTION PULLS MUCH MORE MOISTURE/PRECIP NORTHWARD TOWARD AT
LEAST THE GA COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF...CANADIAN/GEM AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW A WEAKER
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE...WHICH KEEPS BEST PRECIP MAINLY OVER
THE WATERS AND POSSIBLY IMMEDIATE GA COAST. HAVE NUDGED UP POPS
A TAD MAINLY FOR BETTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...BUT STILL GOING MUCH LOWER/DRIER PRECIP-WISE THAN GFS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...HAVE STAYED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z/30 AT BOTH
KSAV AND KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SAT. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUN AND MON...ESPECIALLY AT
SAV AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
NOCTURNAL JETTING SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THUS WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BY ABOUT 5 KT BEFORE NOON.
WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS ARE NOW WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE THAT
FLAG. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING EXPANDS ALONG A NE-SW AXIS. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TIP TO NE ON THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A DECENT PRES GRAD ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENTS AND
A LONG FETCH WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO RETURN
WITH TIME. INITIALLY...THE BEST PINCHING AND FETCH WILL ALLOW SCA
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER OUR GEORGIA WATERS FRI INTO SAT. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS MOST ALL WATERS WILL SEE NE FLOW
20 KT OR MORE WITH SEAS AT OR ABOVE 6 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

JRL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
853 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-301000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
853 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.