Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATER TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZFP TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION. THINGS ARE WINDING DOWN AS AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT
HAS ALREADY BEEN WORKED OVER BY EARLIER TSTMS. SOME HEAVY RAFL THE
MOST NOTABLE FEATURE W/THIS ACTIVITY. FURTHER S TOWARD CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS...ISOLD TSTMS POPPING UP. LAPS SNDGS SHOW THIS REGION
STILL UNSTABLE W/SB CAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SINCE WE ARE
PAST PEAK HEATING...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO STG AS
ELEVATED CORES NO MORE THAN 50 DBZS AT 15K FT. KEPT MENTION OF SMALL
HAIL AND HEAVY RAFL THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN TRANSITIONED THINGS
TO JUST SHOWERS.

ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN A FEW KNOTS PER LATEST OBS. HRLY TEMPS WERE
TWEAKED.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPPER TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE UPPER TROF AND A VORT MAX WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
HEATING...THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 70S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH MID 70S
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK TUESDAY EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION LATE IN WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY
LOWER CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER TO MFVR LEVELS IN SPOTS LATER
TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VFR/MFVR CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON PRODUCING REDUCED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EXPECT VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORCROSS
MARINE...NORCROSS/DUDA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
414 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-291100-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
414 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH
CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL
MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ050>052-291100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-
414 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VJN