Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
357 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SEVERE AT
TIMES THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ON THE INCREASE OVER THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE THE NORTHEAST
U.S. IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR THIS ACTIVITY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY GIVEN THE SHEAR
PROFILE. NEVERTHELESS...SEVERE CONVECTION IS A LIKELY THREAT
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

LATER THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
INCREASE THE SHEAR PROFILE. AT THIS POINT CONVECTION COULD TAKE ON
MORE STRUCTURE AND THUS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE.
INDEED...AN MCS IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH NY AND AT PRESENT
SPEED WILL BE OVER MAINE TONIGHT. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES AND
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

WORDING IN THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCLUDED THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THIS AND
OTHER NWS PRODUCTS FOR UPDATES TO THE SITUATION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
APPROACHING THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING ALOFT AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
INCREASING JET SUPPORT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE
BEST COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL EXIST. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN END IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE START OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST AND OVER NEWFOUNDLAND PLACES THE NORTHEAST U.S. UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN. SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODEL
GUIDANCE BEYOND FRIDAY IS LEADING TO ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ECMWF MODEL IS FAVORED
FOR FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A NEW LONG WAVE
PATTERN BEGINS TO EMERGE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER AND WILL MAKE SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO MOS GUIDANCE AS RESULT.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WARM MOIST CONDITIONS ARE SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF MAINE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEVERE. REFER TO TAFS AND OTHER AVIATION WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

MAINLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED WED THRU SUN...WITH PERHAPS MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS SPCLY NRN TAF SITES
WED AFT AND EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...LERICOS
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER/NORCROSS

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