Tornado Warning 5, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MARCH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SHEAR
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL ROTATION POSSIBLE NOW THROUGH 2 AM. AFTER
CONFERENCE CALL WITH SPC...A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ALL
OF THE CAE CWA UNTIL 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MARCH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SC AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN QUESTIONS WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS 850 MB WINDS WILL BE 60 KNOTS AND 700
MB WINDS AROUND 75 KNOTS. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING
HEATING TODAY MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN LIMITED...HOWEVER
WITH THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE INCH OR GREATER
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BY MIDNIGHT THE FRONT WILL
HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE MIDLANDS WITH SKIES SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
CLEAR BY DAYBREAK. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT HIGHER WINDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE...REACHING 10-15 MPH BY
MORNING. AS A RESULT THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH 5 AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE LOW 70S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE FOCUS TODAY HAS CENTERED
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AGAIN RETURN ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENTLY A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN 850 MB JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A RAIN
SHIELD OVER EASTERN GEORGIA WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING SOME IFR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE PROBABLY AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
511 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-051015-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
511 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.